Concept · Cognitive Bias: Causal and statistical fallacies

Wrong direction (reverse causation)

Origin: Modern formalization

Biological Parallel

Corvids cache food when they detect predators nearby—but the causation runs counter to intuition. They don't cache *because* predators are present; rather, predators gather where corvids are actively foraging and vulnerable. Mistaking correlation for reversed causation is endemic in ecosystems: plants don't grow in nutrient-rich soil *because* it's rich—their root death cycles *create* that richness. Evolution is particularly unforgiving of reversed causal models.