Wishful thinking

Biological Parallel

Migrating salmon interpret declining water levels as 'temporary'—continuing upstream despite accumulating evidence of drought. Wishful thinking: believing what you need to be true to justify sunk costs. Once migration begins, turning back wastes invested energy. So salmon interpret ambiguous cues optimistically: 'water will rise,' 'spawning grounds are close.' Many die in dried streams. The bias: when reversal costs exceed continuation costs, perception aligns with commitment. Hope becomes strategy when quitting is lethal.