Wishful thinking

Biological Parallel

Pacific salmon, sockeye salmon, chinook salmon, and Atlantic salmon all demonstrate fatal-migration commitment: once upstream movement begins, geographic-migration continues despite accumulating evidence of drought. The semelparous-strategy (breed once, then die) creates path-dependence—turning back wastes irreplaceable energy when reversal costs exceed continuation costs. So salmon interpret declining water levels as temporary, believing spawning grounds are close. Many die in dried streams. Wishful thinking emerges when quitting is more lethal than persisting: perception aligns with commitment. Hope becomes strategy when reversal means certain death.