Texas sharpshooter fallacy

Biological Parallel

Woodpecker finches on the Galápagos use cactus spines to extract insects—evidence of tool use! But there are 18 finch species; with enough variation, some will exhibit any behavior by chance. The fallacy: drawing the bullseye around the hit after firing. Adaptive radiation produces random variation; we cherry-pick the impressive cases and construct post-hoc narratives of 'remarkable adaptation.' Natural selection operates on all variation, not just the photogenic examples.