Concept · Cognitive Bias: Decision-making and judgment biases
Survivorship bias
Origin: Wald, 1943 (concept); modern formalization 20th century
Biological Parallel
Studying only living species creates a false picture of evolutionary success—99.9% of all species that ever existed are extinct, and their strategies disappeared with them. The Cambrian explosion produced dozens of body plans; we see only the survivors and assume their designs were optimal when in fact they were merely lucky. Fossil records reveal that armor, size, and specialization often predicted extinction, not survival, but we can't interview the dead. Every extant organism represents survivorship bias embodied—we study winners without seeing the evidence scattered in stone.