Scenario Planning

Biological Parallel

Scenario planning is bet-hedging: prepare for multiple futures rather than betting on one. Desert annual plants produce seeds with different germination triggers—some sprout after the first rain, others wait for second or third rains, some remain dormant for years. If early rains are false starts, early germinators die but late-germinating seeds survive. If rains are reliable, early germinators gain first-mover advantage. The strategy: diversify commitments across scenarios so you survive regardless of which future materializes. No single seed 'wins,' but the lineage persists through environmental uncertainty.