Restraint bias

Biological Parallel

Arctic ground squirrels entering hibernation "trust" their physiology to suppress appetite for months—but if prematurely warmed in a lab, they immediately seek food despite fat reserves. The squirrel overestimates its restraint when not actually hungry, discovering only when aroused that hunger overrides planning. Restraint bias—overconfidence in resisting temptation when not currently tempted—reflects state-dependent motivation: when the drive circuit (hunger, arousal, stress) is inactive, we simulate resistance using our calm, rational circuits. But temptation activates different neural systems that weren't consulted during the prediction.