Regression to the mean ignorance
Origin: Galton, 1886 (identified); Kahneman & Tversky (popularized)
Biological Parallel
Exceptionally tall parents produce shorter offspring on average—not because height genes disappear, but because extreme phenotypes require improbable combinations of genetic and environmental factors unlikely to recur. This statistical regression appears in every quantitative trait: the fastest gazelle's offspring are slower, the largest antlers shrink across generations toward the mean. Businesses ignore this relentlessly: companies hire after outlier quarterly performance then blame the new CEO when results regress, sports teams pay premium contracts after career-best seasons, investors chase last year's top fund managers. Galton discovered regression studying sweet peas in 1886; organizations still haven't learned.