Biology of Business

Concept · Cognitive Bias: Decision-making and judgment biases

Reflection effect

Origin: Kahneman & Tversky, 1979

By Alex Denne

Biological Parallel

Starlings shift risk preference based on energy reserves: when energy-positive, they choose guaranteed food patches (risk-averse); when starving (energy-negative), they prefer variable patches with 50% chance of large reward (risk-seeking). The mechanism: survival thresholds flip preferences. Bumblebees with full honey crops avoid flowers with variable nectar (2-10μL), but depleted bees prefer them over guaranteed 5μL flowers. Hummingbirds accept 80% reliable feeders when sated but demand >95% when energy-depleted—same feeder, different frame. The pattern: gains domain = risk aversion; losses domain = risk seeking. When above survival threshold, consistency beats variance.