Concept · Cognitive Bias: Decision-making and judgment biases
Pseudocertainty effect
Origin: Kahneman & Tversky, 1981
Biological Parallel
When prey escapes a predator's first charge (stage 1: certain success), relief floods in—even though the chase continues (stage 2: uncertain outcome). The pseudocertainty effect compartmentalizes multi-stage risks: solving the immediate problem feels like total resolution. This temporal windowing makes sense when immediate threats were existential—survive the current predator before worrying about tomorrow's. Your relief after acing the first interview, ignoring four rounds ahead, is ancient threat-staging.