Concept · Cognitive Bias: Informal fallacies of presumption
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
Origin: Traditional Latin (ancient)
Biological Parallel
When populations of lynx and snowshoe hare cycle in near-perfect synchrony across decades, the sequence tempts simple causation: hare populations crash, then lynx populations crash. But the relationship is far more complex—both respond to vegetation cycles, weather patterns, and multi-trophic cascades. Temporal correlation in ecological data is notoriously misleading; the predator-prey narrative is seductive precisely because it ignores confounding variables. Sequence is not causation, even when repeated for centuries.