Overprecision

Biological Parallel

Migratory birds navigate with remarkable accuracy but experiments reveal systematic overprecision—young birds follow initial compass bearings even when environmental cues suggest course correction is warranted. This overconfidence in directional certainty serves a function: constant second-guessing during thousand-mile migrations would waste energy and increase predation exposure during indecisive maneuvering. Once committed to a navigational strategy, maintaining confidence—even excessive confidence—often produces better outcomes than continuous reassessment, even when initial calibration was imperfect.