Overconfidence effect

Biological Parallel

Male elephant seals attempt beach takeovers despite most failing violently. Overconfidence enables attempts—accurate self-assessment would prevent most challenges, leaving all breeding to a few unchallenged alphas. Slight overconfidence increases variance in outcomes: most overconfident males lose, but winners breed massively. The effect persists because accurate confidence creates underparticipation. Your certainty in your above-average driving descends from ancestors whose overconfidence got them into the mating game.