Concept · Cognitive Bias: Decision-making and judgment biases
Outcome bias
Origin: Baron & Hershey, 1988
Biological Parallel
A wolf pack that takes a risky hunt and succeeds celebrates the alpha's decision; the same choice ending in injury condemns it. Outcome bias—judging decisions by results rather than process—reflects social learning constraints: groups can't observe counterfactuals or internal reasoning, only outcomes. Evaluating leaders by results rather than decision quality is informationally efficient. Your results-oriented judgment mirrors ancestral selection where only outcomes were observable and outcomes determined reproductive success.