Optimism bias (unrealistic optimism)

Biological Parallel

Young male lions challenging prides have dismal success rates (under 10%), yet they attempt takeovers with seemingly unrealistic confidence. Optimism bias enables high-risk, high-reward behaviors: pessimistic lions never try, never breed. Slight overconfidence increases attempts; most fail, but winners take all. The bias is a population-level adaptation—groups need some individuals to try long-shots. Your unrealistic startup optimism descends from males who overestimated their odds and occasionally won everything.