Normalcy bias

Biological Parallel

Frogs in gradually heated water fail to escape—the classic demonstration of normalcy bias. Small deviations from baseline don't trigger alarm; organisms habituate to gradual change. Coral that should bleach at 30°C now tolerates 31°C because each year's temperature is only incrementally higher—but when the threshold hits 32°C, mass die-off occurs. Pacific cod shifted northward 50km/decade as waters warmed but maintained 'normal' behavior until thermal limits abruptly collapsed fisheries. Normalcy bias anchors expectations to recent experience, not absolute thresholds. Organizations exhibit the same lag: Kodak saw digital photography coming but treated each year's 10% film decline as 'manageable'—until collapse. When change accelerates, recalibration lags fatally behind.