Normalcy bias

Biological Parallel

Frogs in gradually heated water fail to escape—the classic demonstration of normalcy bias. Small deviations from baseline don't trigger alarm; organisms habituate to gradual change. But the phenomenon is real across taxa: coral that should bleach earlier as temperatures rise delay response because each year's temperature is only incrementally higher. Normalcy bias anchors expectations to recent experience, not absolute thresholds. When change accelerates, recalibration lags fatally behind.