Neglect of probability

Biological Parallel

Meerkats maintain sentinels for eagle attacks that kill <0.1% annually, investing thousands of guard hours for improbable threats. But one eagle strike eliminates entire families—low probability, infinite cost. This produces adaptive probability neglect: emotional response to vivid outcomes (predation, disease, fire) overwhelms statistical likelihood. Humans inherit identical circuitry: we fear terrorism (kills 50/year) over heart disease (kills 650,000/year), purchase cyber insurance after reading one breach story despite low baseline risk, evacuate cities for hurricane warnings even at 15% strike probability. When stakes are existential, probabilities become irrelevant.