Concept · Cognitive Bias: Attribution biases
Moral luck
Origin: Williams, 1976; Nagel, 1979
Biological Parallel
Two arctic terns migrate 25,000 miles from pole to pole. One encounters favorable winds and arrives fat; one hits storms and arrives emaciated. Both exhibited identical skill and effort, but observers judge the emaciated tern as less competent—outcome bias overwhelming process assessment. This is adaptive for mate selection: outcomes (however random) predict offspring survival better than invisible intentions. But it creates moral luck: identical behaviors receive different judgments based on uncontrollable factors. In business, we judge CEOs by stock performance during their tenure, largely ignoring the macro winds they encountered.