Concept · Cognitive Bias: Causal and statistical fallacies
Magical thinking
Origin: Frazer, 1890
Biological Parallel
Superstitious pigeons develop ritualistic behaviors when food arrives randomly—peck twice, spin left, food appears. The reinforcement is coincidental, but the association persists. Humans exhibit the same: rain dances, lucky rituals, cargo cults. Natural selection didn't eliminate magical thinking because the cost of false positives (wasted ritual) is often lower than false negatives (missing real patterns). Evolution optimized for pattern detection, not truth.