Law of small numbers (belief in)

Biological Parallel

When five finches landed on Galápagos islands, their descendants radiated into 15 species—small founding populations create explosive diversity through genetic drift and rapid selection. Small samples genuinely predict large outcomes in evolution when founder effects dominate. Humans overgeneralize this: researchers declare significance after N=20 trials, investors identify 'patterns' in 5-year returns, managers redesign organizations after three successful startups. Unlike island biogeography where small samples carry genuine information about colonization potential, most business and scientific domains require large N to overcome noise.