Inverse fallacy

Biological Parallel

Signal detection theory explains why organisms tolerate massive false positive rates: the cost asymmetry between missing a predator (death) and fleeing from nothing (wasted calories) makes hair-trigger responses adaptive. Vervet monkeys, prairie dogs, ground squirrels, and bird flocks all show false alarm rates far exceeding actual threat rates. Meerkats calibrate sentinel behavior to the same lopsided cost matrix. The inverse fallacy is the cognitive residue of this evolutionary pressure — brains wired to ask 'how dangerous?' rather than 'how probable?'