Intentionality bias

Biological Parallel

Pigeons in Skinner boxes developed elaborate 'superstitious' behaviors—spinning, head-bobbing—falsely attributing food delivery (actually random) to their actions. This intentionality bias is adaptive: in nature, food USUALLY results from intentional foraging behavior, so assuming agency and causal control drives adaptive learning. The bias only becomes visible in artificial environments where outcomes are truly random. Humans show identical superstitions in markets: attributing gains to skill when randomness dominates, then iterating ineffective strategies while markets remain efficient.