Concept · Cognitive Bias: Decision-making and judgment biases
Illusion of validity
Origin: Kahneman & Tversky, 1973
Biological Parallel
A foraging crow that successfully finds food using a particular strategy (follow stream to meadow) develops strong confidence in this pattern, even if success was largely luck. Consistency in inputs (same route) creates illusion of causal control. Pattern-detection systems evolved to extract signal from noise, but they can't distinguish genuine patterns from random success strings. The illusion persists because occasional reinforcement (intermittent rewards) strengthens confidence more than consistent outcomes—slot machine psychology.