Biology of Business

Concept · Cognitive Bias: Causal and statistical fallacies

Ignoring a common cause

Origin: Modern statistical reasoning

By Alex Denne

Biological Parallel

When bark beetles infest drought-stressed forests, tree mortality soars. The naive correlation: beetles *cause* tree death. The hidden common cause: water stress weakens both tree defenses and triggers beetle outbreaks. Climate is the confounding variable. Ecosystems are networks of shared causation—attributing outcomes to the most visible actor ignores the environmental scaffolding that enables every interaction.