Hype Cycle

Biological Parallel

Gartner's Hype Cycle—rising expectations, disillusionment trough, gradual productivity plateau—mirrors ecological succession after a disturbance. After a forest fire, pioneer species explode in abundance (peak of inflated expectations), then crash as they deplete resources and shade themselves out (trough of disillusionment). Slower-growing climax species gradually establish (slope of enlightenment), eventually creating a stable, productive ecosystem (plateau of productivity). The pattern is universal: rapid colonizers burn bright and collapse; sustainable systems build slowly. Expect the trough—it's not failure, it's succession.