Hofstadter's Law effect

Biological Parallel

'This forest succession will reach climax in 50 years.' 80 years later, still not climax. Hofstadter's Law: it always takes longer than you expect, even when you account for Hofstadter's Law. Ecological succession predictions systematically underestimate duration because we can't foresee all disruptions (fires, droughts, invasives, soil depletion). The mechanism: we predict based on known constraints but unknown unknowns dominate complex timelines. Metamorphosis prediction: 'pupation in two weeks' is reliable (simple, contained). Forest succession: recursive uncertainty compounds. Complexity scales exponentially, not linearly.