Concept · Cognitive Bias: Decision-making and judgment biases
Hindsight bias ("knew-it-all-along" effect)
Origin: Fischhoff, 1975
Biological Parallel
After wolves attack from upwind, surviving elk 'remember' wind direction as obviously wrong—though wind seemed irrelevant before the attack. Hindsight bias retrospectively strengthens causal patterns: memory rewrites ambiguous cues as clear warnings, extracting signal from noise. This isn't memory failure; it's learning optimization. Animals that encoded 'I should have known' extracted teachable patterns from randomness faster than those accepting unpredictability. Your 'knew-it-all-along' feeling is neural pattern-extraction treating the past as a training dataset.