Concept · Cognitive Bias: Decision-making and judgment biases
Hard-easy effect
Origin: Lichtenstein & Fischhoff, 1977
Biological Parallel
Crows solving easy puzzles (visible treats in transparent tubes) show overconfidence, trying quickly and repeatedly; hard puzzles (multi-step locking mechanisms) elicit underconfidence and cautious deliberation. The calibration shift is adaptive: easy tasks have cheap learning costs (try again immediately), encouraging bold trial-and-error; hard tasks risk wasted energy and opportunity costs, demanding careful planning. Confidence properly tracks task stakes—your swagger on routine spreadsheets and paralysis on strategic pivots mirrors evolved task-appropriate risk calibration.