Gambler's fallacy (Monte Carlo fallacy)

Biological Parallel

Predators switch prey after successful hunts, assuming depleted hunting grounds—a rational response when resources are finite. A wolf pack that caught a caribou shifts territory because the herd scattered, making another kill less likely (true negative correlation). Humans misapply this depletion heuristic to independent events: after three red roulette spins, 'black is due' feels correct. Casinos exploit this: random sequences don't deplete like caribou herds, but our foraging-tuned brains can't distinguish renewable randomness from exhaustible prey patches.