Concept · Cognitive Bias: Causal and statistical fallacies

Furtive fallacy

Origin: Fischer, 1970

Biological Parallel

Observing that successful invasive species are generalists, one might conclude that specialism is always inferior. But this ignores selection bias: specialists dominate stable ecosystems where they've co-evolved for millions of years. We only notice generalists when ecosystems are disrupted—disturbed environments filter for opportunism. The furtive fallacy mistakes the visible survivors of disturbance for universally superior strategies.