Concept · Cognitive Bias: Causal and statistical fallacies

Fallacy of the single cause (causal oversimplification)

Origin: Modern formalization

Biological Parallel

Why did the dinosaurs go extinct? The asteroid impact at Chicxulub is the popular single cause—but extinction required a convergence: volcanic activity (Deccan Traps), sea level changes, climate shifts, and ecosystem fragility. No major extinction event has a single cause; they're cascades where multiple stressors exceed adaptive capacity. Complex systems fail from accumulated vulnerabilities, not silver bullets.