Expert prediction failure

Biological Parallel

Ecologists predicted the gray wolf reintroduction to Yellowstone would primarily control elk populations. Correct—but they failed to predict the trophic cascade: beaver resurgence, riparian vegetation recovery, songbird increases, stream morphology changes. Expert prediction failure: specialists forecast within their domain but miss system-level interactions. The mechanism: expertise creates narrow focus. Wolf biologists understood predation but not hydrology, geomorphology, or songbird ecology. Complex systems punish domain expertise that ignores cross-domain effects. Hedgehogs know one big thing; foxes know many small things. Yellowstone needed foxes.