Expected Value

Biological Parallel

A bird at a fruiting tree must decide: stay and deplete this patch, or fly to find another? Optimal foraging theory calculates expected value: (fruit density × handling time × depletion rate) minus (flight energy cost × search time × failure probability). Birds that track these probabilities and make expected-value-maximizing decisions outcompete those using simpler heuristics. Expected value isn't human invention—it's the algorithm natural selection favors in resource decision-making.