Depressive realism

Biological Parallel

When pigeons receive random rewards regardless of behavior, some develop learned helplessness and quit. But they also achieve depressive realism: accurately assessing they have zero control. Optimistic pigeons persist with illusions of control, wasting energy on superstitious rituals. Depressive realism is adaptive only in genuinely uncontrollable contexts—it triggers strategic withdrawal. In controllable environments, optimistic persistence pays off. Both strategies persist because environments vary unpredictably. The same trade-off governs organizations: depressive realism ('we can't win this market') enables wise retreat; optimistic illusion ('we can turn this around') sometimes enables improbable victories. Selection maintains both because neither dominates across all contexts.