Concept · Cognitive Bias: Informal fallacies of presumption

Cum hoc ergo propter hoc

Origin: Traditional Latin logic

Biological Parallel

Storks and human birth rates showed strong positive correlation across European regions for decades—both concentrated in rural areas with specific socioeconomic conditions. The correlation was real; the causation was fantasy. Biology confronts this fallacy constantly: ice cream sales correlate with shark attacks (both peak in summer), species richness correlates with latitude (both driven by energy availability). Correlation without mechanism is astrology. Ecological systems demand we identify the hidden common cause before claiming direct causation.