Base rate neglect (base rate fallacy)

Biological Parallel

Gazelles flee at every rustle in grass despite base rates: 99% are wind, not lions. Natural selection eliminated animals that paused to compute Bayesian probabilities—false positives waste energy, but one false negative means death. This evolutionary heritage produces systematic base rate neglect: ER doctors overweight dramatic symptoms while missing common diseases (chest pain = heart attack, not heartburn), investors chase vivid narratives over statistical fundamentals, hiring managers select charismatic candidates despite predictive validity of structured assessments.