Barbell Strategy

Biological Parallel

Desert annual plants split reproductive strategy: some seeds germinate immediately after rain (exploiting current opportunity), while others remain dormant for years (hedging against multi-year drought). No seeds use a 'middle' strategy of partial germination timing. This barbell distribution—maximum exposure to upside, maximum protection from downside, nothing in the mediocre middle—outcompetes moderate strategies. Taleb's barbell applies identical asymmetry: combine safe assets with high-risk/high-reward bets, avoiding false safety of the middle.