Waymo

Waymo served 14 million autonomous rides in 2025 and crossed 450,000 weekly paid trips by December, operating across five markets with over 1,000 vehicles deployed between Los Angeles and San Francisco. This geographic expansion mirrors adaptive radiation: once the autonomous driving phenotype proved viable in Phoenix's simple grid layout, Waymo radiated into ecologically distinct niches—San Francisco's hills, Los Angeles' freeways, Austin's sprawl. Each environment selects for different capabilities, and surviving them all creates competitive moats rivals struggle to replicate.

The company's November 2025 expansion onto Southern California freeways—from Mexican border to Ventura County—represents a phase transition from urban navigation to intercity mobility. Like amphibians colonizing land after mastering water, Waymo's freeway approval unlocks entirely new habitat. The $5.6 billion funding round in October 2024 provides metabolic reserves for this expansion, but also reveals the business model's energetic deficit: even with 450,000 weekly rides, Waymo consumes more resources than it generates.

Removing Los Angeles' waitlist in November 2024 after one year of testing demonstrates controlled exposure: Waymo avoided explosive demand that would overwhelm fleet capacity (the fate of early Uber in surge-pricing scenarios). This population management mirrors predator-prey dynamics—maintain enough supply to satisfy demand without creating shortages that damage brand trust. With competitors Tesla and Amazon's Zoox preparing 2025-2026 launches, Waymo's first-mover advantage depends on whether network effects (more rides = better maps = safer performance) compound faster than rivals' capital advantages erode the lead.