Waymo

Alphabet's self-driving car subsidiary is both a success story and a cautionary tale about corporate incubation.

When Waymo emerged from Google X in 2015, it owned the autonomous vehicle future. Seven-year head start. Best AI talent in the world. Unlimited capital. The niche was empty, the technology was maturing, and Waymo had every advantage. Then Tesla proved you could ship imperfect autonomy and improve it in production. Cruise raised $10 billion. Aurora recruited the Uber ATG team. By 2020, Waymo's empty niche had become a crowded battlefield.

Here's what saved Waymo: the same Alphabet structure that may have slowed it down. Patient capital, access to cutting-edge AI infrastructure, insulation from quarterly earnings pressure, and the ability to operate at a loss while refining technology. Waymo graduated to independent subsidiary in 2020 ($45B valuation by 2024) while most AV startups died. Continuous calving - maintaining parental support while gaining independence - works when timelines are measured in decades, not quarters.

The lesson: corporate incubation can protect you from premature death, but the comfort of patient capital can dull the urgency that builds category-defining companies. Sometimes the best environment isn't the safest one.