OpenAI

OpenAI exemplifies r-selection in the AI ecosystem: rapid reproduction of models (7 families in 18 months), wide dispersal (800 million weekly users), and aggressive territory expansion. From GPT-4o to o3 to the integrated GPT-5, their release cadence mirrors annual plants broadcasting seeds before winter.

The metabolic cost is staggering. In 2024, OpenAI lost $5 billion on $3.7 billion revenue—a 135% burn rate. Projected losses through 2028 total $44 billion. This is classic r-selection: maximize growth rate over efficiency, colonize territory before competitors establish. The $500 billion valuation (October 2025) represents bet on winner-take-all dynamics, not current fundamentals.

Yet first-mover advantage is eroding. Enterprise market share dropped from 50% (2023) to 25% (2025) as Anthropic's K-selected strategy—fewer, higher-quality models with safety emphasis—captures risk-averse buyers. ChatGPT's consumer dominance (59.5% market share, down from 76%) faces Red Queen dynamics: running faster just to maintain position.

The Microsoft symbiosis ($14 billion invested, 27% ownership) creates obligate mutualism. Neither partner can easily exit. Microsoft provides compute, distribution, and enterprise relationships; OpenAI provides the models. This path dependence constrains strategic options—like mitochondria unable to survive outside their host cells.