Carrefour Brazil

Carrefour Brazil illustrates the Red Queen hypothesis: you must adapt just to survive, not to win. The French hypermarket chain dominated Brazilian retail for 25 years with K-selected DNA - large format stores, suburban locations, one-stop shopping - holding 30% market share by 2000. Then the fitness landscape shifted without warning.

Brazilian consumers' preferences moved toward smaller, neighborhood stores (proximity over selection, frequent small purchases over weekly big shops). Carrefour's hypermarket DNA became a liability overnight. Market share dropped from 30% to 18% between 2005-2015 as nimbler competitors captured new niches. The company finally adapted with multiple formats (Carrefour Market, Atacadao, Carrefour Express) - 15 years after the environment shifted. By 2020, diversification enabled survival, but by then competitors had captured the growth.

The lesson: fitness landscapes can shift faster than organizations can adapt, and dominant species often don't recognize environmental change until it's too late to lead the response. Carrefour's 15-year adaptation delay shows that even when you eventually evolve the right DNA, timing matters. The Red Queen says you must run to stay in place - but if you start running 15 years late, you're already extinct in growth terms even if you survive in market-share terms.