Amgen

Amgen's $33.4 billion revenue in 2024 surged 19% year-over-year, driven primarily by the $27.8 billion Horizon Therapeutics acquisition. The deal added TEPEZZA ($1.9B annual sales), KRYSTEXXA ($1.2B), and UPLIZNA ($379M) to Amgen's product portfolio. This is predation strategy: acquire smaller organisms with valuable traits, digest their assets, and incorporate the biomass into your own metabolism. Horizon developed drugs for rare diseases—thyroid eye disease, gout, neuromyelitis optica—that Amgen's infrastructure could scale more effectively. The company achieved adjusted EPS of $19.84 in 2024, up 6%, demonstrating that integration is extracting value. For 2025, Amgen projects $34.3-35.7B revenue and $20.00-21.20 adjusted EPS, representing continued growth as Horizon products flow through Amgen's commercial and manufacturing systems.

The obesity drug pipeline reveals the challenge of timing in ecological succession. Amgen's MariTide showed 20% average weight loss at 52 weeks in Phase II trials—disappointing investors who expected 25%+ based on Eli Lilly's and Novo Nordisk's results. Markets punished the stock because Amgen entered the obesity niche late, meaning its drug must be clearly superior to displace established competitors. It isn't. Worse, the FDA placed early-stage candidate AMG 513 on clinical hold in 2024, removing a backup option. CEO Robert Bradway remains confident in MariTide's differentiated profile, with additional Phase II data expected in H2 2025. The biology: early colonizers of a new habitat gain first-mover advantages that later entrants must overcome with superior adaptations. Wegovy and Zepbound are early colonizers. MariTide is the late entrant that must prove fitness advantages to justify market share capture.

Biosimilar competition threatens Amgen's legacy products. Prolia and Xgeva sales are expected to decline in 2025 as biosimilar versions enter the market. This is the Red Queen hypothesis in action: Amgen must run faster just to stay in place. The company increased R&D spending to mid-teens growth in 2025, targeting pipeline development to replace revenue that biosimilars will erode. Adjusted operating margin is projected at 46%, demonstrating operational efficiency even as competitive pressure mounts. The strategic choice: accept margin compression from biosimilars while investing heavily in new drugs, or maintain margins by cutting R&D and accepting slow death. Amgen chose investment, betting that pipeline success will more than offset legacy product erosion. The next two years determine whether this bet pays off or whether Amgen becomes another biotech firm disrupted by faster competitors.