Ambev

Ambev faces the challenge every dominant organism eventually encounters: the environment shifted and the traits that created dominance now limit adaptation. Brazil's beer market contracted 7.7% in Q3 2025, but Ambev's CEO attributes 70% to weather and regional economics, not competitive displacement. The company's BRL 21.9 billion operating profit (15% increase) in 2024 with 32.5% EBITDA margin shows metabolic efficiency remains exceptional. But volume declines across quarters (4.5% in Q2, industry softness continuing through Q3 2025) reveal frequency-dependent selection at work: when mass-market preferences shift toward premium and craft, the giant optimized for volume distribution struggles to adapt fast enough.

Here's what Ambev gets right: premium and super-premium volumes grew 9%+ in 2025, reaching highest share since 2015. This is niche partitioning in action—the company maintains Skol/Brahma/Antarctica for mass market while building premium portfolio. Net revenue per hectoliter grew 8.4% organically in Q2 2025, proving pricing power remains strong. The EBITDA expansion to 30.6% margin shows Ambev can extract more value from fewer liters. This is the biological strategy of mature organisms: when you can't grow larger, grow more efficient. The problem: projected COGS increases of 5.5-8.5% for 2025 from commodity inflation and currency pressure mean margins face compression exactly when volumes decline.

The deeper issue is architectural. Ambev's distribution network was built for scale: get Skol into every bar, every restaurant, every corner store across Brazil. That infrastructure becomes a liability when growth comes from $8 craft IPAs sold in specialty shops, not $2 Brahma sold by the pallet. The company can't easily redirect resources from volume logistics to premium brand building. It's watching craft breweries and premium imports carve out profitable niches while Ambev's mass-market core—53% of turnover—faces structural headwinds. The BRL 40.3 billion market cap and $15.9 billion revenue base provide resources for adaptation. The question is whether a giant optimized for one ecological strategy can evolve fast enough when the environment selects for the opposite traits. So far: financial strength remains robust, volume trajectory remains concerning.