Adidas

€23.7 billion in 2024 revenue (up 12%), operating profit €1.3 billion versus €268 million the prior year, and a 66% stock price gain since CEO Bjørn Gulden took over in 2023. Adidas is demonstrating mesopredator release: when the apex predator (Nike) stumbles, secondary competitors radiate into vacated niches. Nike revenue fell 10% below €50 billion in its most recent fiscal year, stock dropped 30% in 2024 and another 24% in 2025, and market capitalization compressed to just 2.2x Adidas (versus 4x historical average). That's not Adidas winning—it's Nike losing grip while Adidas exploits the opening through local-for-local production strategy, improved retailer relationships, and product range expansion across categories Nike abandoned during its direct-to-consumer overreach.

The biological mechanism is adaptive radiation into newly available niches. Adidas grew double-digits across all regions in Q1 2025: Europe (up 16%), North America (15%), Greater China (13%), Emerging Markets (19%), Latin America (12%). That geographic breadth signals phenotypic plasticity—the same corporate genome expressing differently across markets through local production (70% of Greater China sales manufactured locally), speed-to-market models in India and Brazil, and regional product customization. Gross margin surged 3.3 percentage points to 50.8% through reduced freight costs, lower discounting, and favorable product mix. Operating margin hit 9.9% in Q1 2025 (up from 6.2%), demonstrating margin expansion as volumes grow—the signature of increasing returns, not just market share theft.

Yet Adidas's gains are opportunistic, not structural. Nike's dysfunction created the opening: over-rotation to DTC alienated wholesale partners, sneaker market oversaturation killed hype cycles, and strategic drift left categories underserved. Adidas didn't innovate radically—it executed competently while Nike floundered. The Yeezy inventory liquidation (€650 million in 2024 revenue, now complete) obscures underlying momentum, but 2025 guidance of 9% currency-neutral sales growth and €2 billion operating profit projects confidence. Market share climbed to 8.9% versus Nike's 14.1%—still substantial gap, but narrowing. The test isn't whether Adidas grows while Nike stumbles; it's whether Adidas sustains growth when Nike stabilizes under new leadership and re-optimizes distribution. Mesopredator release works until the apex predator returns. Adidas is building competitive moats (regional manufacturing, retailer loyalty, category breadth) to defend gains, but the window for entrenchment closes when Nike stops creating opportunities through self-inflicted wounds.