The definition of El Niño
TL;DR
Everyone knows El Niño is coming—the effects are predictable, the timing isn't. ENSO operates on 2-7 year cycles with certain disruption at uncertain times.
Speed Read
0%
300 WPM
-- remaining
Standard scientific reference defining El Niño—establishing measurement thresholds for a 2-7 year climate cycle that creates predictable effects (droughts, floods) at unpredictable times. Explains the paradox of known cycles with uncertain timing.
Key Findings from Trenberth (1997)
- ENSO operates on 2-7 year irregular cycles—predictable pattern, unpredictable timing
- Defined specific temperature thresholds for El Niño classification
- Primary driver of short-term climate variability globally
- Creates droughts in Australia/Indonesia, floods in Peru, disrupted monsoons
- Effects are known but timing cannot be precisely forecast