The Dynamics of Crowdfunding: An Exploratory Study
Crowdfunding follows quorum-sensing dynamics—48,500 Kickstarter projects show campaigns surge only after hitting threshold via positive feedback loops.
Nothing happens until you hit threshold—then everything happens at once. This landmark study of 48,500+ Kickstarter projects revealed that crowdfunding follows quorum-sensing dynamics: campaigns languish below funding thresholds, then surge as early backers trigger positive feedback loops that attract herding behavior. The "all-or-nothing" model creates phase transition dynamics—you either hit critical mass or get nothing.
But the data exposed uncomfortable truths. Every single project seeking over $1M failed, none coming closer than 3% of their goal—ambition without network foundation is suicide. Over 75% of successful projects delivered late, with delay increasing proportionally to funding received. Like bacteria that only produce bioluminescence once enough neighbors signal their presence, crowdfunding success depends less on product quality and more on whether you can reach the threshold where social proof triggers cascade. The mechanism is the same: coordinate or fail.
Key Findings from Mollick (2014)
- Dataset of 48,500+ projects with combined funding over $237M—largest crowdfunding study at time of publication
- Personal networks and project quality both predict success, but network effects dominate near threshold
- All 25 projects with goals above $1M failed—none came closer than 3% of target
- Over 75% of successful projects delivered products later than expected
- Degree of delivery delay predicted by funding level—more money meant longer delays