Citation
Survival without Recovery after Mass Extinctions
TL;DR
Geographic range is strongest predictor of mass extinction survival
Analyzes trait-based extinction selectivity during mass extinctions, documenting how geographic range predicts survival more strongly than ecological specialization. This research reveals that the traits predicting success during normal times differ fundamentally from traits predicting survival during catastrophes.
For business strategy, this validates the importance of geographic and market diversification as extinction insurance. Companies with broad presence across markets survive industry disruptions more often than geographically concentrated specialists, even if those specialists are highly competitive in their niches.
Key Findings from Jablonski (2002)
- Geographic range is strongest predictor of mass extinction survival
- Widespread species survive 2-3x more often than restricted endemics
- Normal competitive fitness doesn't predict mass extinction survival
- Survival patterns differ fundamentally between background and mass extinctions