Citation
Douglas Fir Seedling Survival Studies
TL;DR
Of 1,000 germinating Douglas fir seeds, fewer than 5 survive to reproductive age
Documents that of 1,000 Douglas fir seeds that germinate in a forest, fewer than 5 survive to reproductive age (40-50 years). This 99.5% mortality rate during early growth establishes the biological parallel for startup survival rates.
The research shows that survivors aren't lucky - they had specific adaptations that navigated early growth constraints including light availability, herbivory pressure, and resource competition.
Key Findings from researchers (2000)
- Of 1,000 germinating Douglas fir seeds, fewer than 5 survive to reproductive age
- Mortality rate during early growth exceeds 99.5%
- Seedlings receive only 2-5% of full sunlight under forest canopy
- Early growth is most dangerous phase - too small for resources, too weak against herbivores