An Investigation of Hindsight Bias in Nascent Venture Activity

This study provides direct empirical evidence that entrepreneurs exhibit substantial hindsight bias - their recalled probability of success after quitting is significantly lower than what they stated during the venture process. Using longitudinal data from 198 U.S. nascent entrepreneurs, the research demonstrates that self-reported entrepreneurial narratives cannot be trusted as accurate accounts of decision-making.

For the book's argument, this research proves that even entrepreneurs themselves don't accurately remember their own success probabilities. If founders can't reliably report their own past beliefs, then business advice derived from founder interviews is built on systematically distorted data. Biology's advantage is that organisms can't engage in this self-deception.