Book 6: Adaptation and Evolution
Convergent EvolutionNew
Why Different Organizations Look Similar
Book 6, Chapter 5: Convergent Evolution - Independent Discovery of Optimal Solutions
Introduction
In the early 20th century, anatomists discovered something remarkable. Vertebrates and cephalopods (octopuses, squids) both possess camera-type eyes. In both groups, a lens focuses light onto a retina. Photoreceptors convert light to neural signals. An optic nerve transmits information to the brain. The optical principles are identical - both eyes obey the same physics of image formation.
Yet these two groups diverged from a common ancestor over 600 million years ago. That was long before either lineage possessed image-forming eyes. Their shared ancestor likely had simple light-sensitive cells at best. Not complex camera eyes.
The similarity arose not through inheritance but through convergent evolution - independent lineages evolving similar solutions to the same environmental problem. In this case, the challenge was forming high-resolution images underwater. The camera eye evolved at least twice, possibly more times, in evolutionary history. Why? The physics of image formation constrain possible solutions. To focus light, you need a lens. To detect that focused light, you need photoreceptors. The functional problem has a limited set of viable solutions. Natural selection discovered the same solution repeatedly.
Convergent evolution is pervasive. Wings evolved independently in insects, pterosaurs, birds, and bats. Four separate origins of powered flight. Each used different anatomical structures modified into airfoils. Echolocation evolved independently in bats and toothed whales. Both use high-frequency sound to navigate and hunt in darkness or murky water. C4 photosynthesis evolved independently at least 60 times in flowering plants. This metabolic pathway is more efficient than standard C3 photosynthesis in hot, dry environments.
The pattern reveals deep truths about evolution. The process is historical and contingent - small changes in initial conditions can lead to radically different outcomes (see genetic drift, Chapter 2). Yet certain solutions are strongly favored when organisms face similar selection pressures. These are environmental forces that favor some traits over others: predation, resource scarcity, temperature extremes.
The fitness landscape has peaks. These represent optimal or near-optimal trait combinations. Multiple lineages climb toward them from different starting points. Convergence is strongest when selective pressures are strong, environments are stable, and viable solutions are constrained.
For organizations, convergent evolution manifests as independent companies arriving at similar strategic, structural, or operational solutions when facing analogous (functionally similar but arising from different origins) competitive pressures - even without direct copying. Examples include:
- Subscription business models converging across software, media, and physical goods as customer acquisition costs rise and recurring revenue becomes strategically valuable
- Agile development practices converging across technology companies as product cycles shorten and markets become more volatile
- Direct-to-consumer strategies converging across consumer brands as digital advertising enables bypassing traditional retail intermediaries
- Platform business models converging across industries (transportation, lodging, freelance work) as network effects dominate economics
The thesis of this chapter: Similar problems produce similar solutions, even when companies have never heard of each other. This isn't copying - it's convergent evolution. When the fitness landscape has a dominant peak, all climbers converge on that peak regardless of starting point. The question isn't whether convergence will occur, but which dimensions will converge and which permit sustainable differentiation.
This chapter explores the mechanisms of biological convergence, its limitations (not all solutions converge; historical contingency matters), and the organizational parallels. Understanding convergence helps diagnose which industry "best practices" emerge from genuine optimization (and thus are likely unavoidable) versus which stem from fads or context-specific solutions (and thus may not apply to your organization). It also reveals when differentiation is feasible (when multiple fitness peaks exist) versus when all competitors will inevitably converge on similar models (when one peak dominates).
Part 1: The Biology of Convergent Evolution
Adaptive Landscapes and Fitness Peaks
The concept of the adaptive landscape, introduced by Sewall Wright in 1932, provides a framework for understanding convergence. Imagine a topographic map where the horizontal axes represent different trait values (e.g., beak size, wing length, metabolic rate) and the vertical axis represents fitness. Populations evolve by moving across this landscape, with selection pushing them toward higher elevations (greater fitness). Peaks represent optimal trait combinations for a given environment; valleys represent maladaptive combinations.
Convergent evolution occurs when multiple populations, starting from different positions on the landscape (different ancestral traits), climb toward the same peak. If the landscape has a single dominant peak, all populations converge. If the landscape has multiple peaks of similar height, populations may converge on different peaks depending on starting position and historical contingencies.
Single-peak landscapes produce strong convergence. Consider the problem of fast swimming in water. The fitness landscape for aquatic locomotion has one dominant peak: streamlined, fusiform (torpedo-shaped) bodies minimize drag. Fish, ichthyosaurs (extinct marine reptiles), dolphins, seals, and penguins all converged on similar body shapes despite evolving from different terrestrial or aquatic ancestors. The hydrodynamic constraints are so strong that deviations from streamlining reduce swimming efficiency, making non-streamlined forms selectively disfavored. There's essentially one way to solve high-speed aquatic locomotion.
Multi-peak landscapes produce limited or no convergence. Consider the problem of defense against predators. The fitness landscape has multiple peaks: armor (turtles, armadillos, beetles), speed (gazelles, rabbits), camouflage (stick insects, flatfish), toxicity (poison dart frogs, monarch butterflies), group defense (musk oxen, schools of fish), mimicry (viceroy butterflies mimicking monarchs), and behavioral avoidance (nocturnal activity). Which peak a lineage climbs depends on starting traits, genetic variation, and ecological context. No single solution dominates, so species don't converge - biodiversity in defensive strategies persists.
The number of peaks is determined by the interaction of constraints (physical laws, developmental limitations) and tradeoffs (improving one trait worsens another). Strong constraints and few tradeoffs create single-peak landscapes; weak constraints and many tradeoffs create multi-peak landscapes.
Physical constraints limit viable solutions:
- Aerodynamics: Powered flight requires generating lift greater than weight. The physics of lift production (Bernoulli's principle, angle of attack, wing loading) constrain wing shapes. As a result, insect wings, pterosaur wings, bird wings, and bat wings all converge on high aspect ratios (long, narrow wings for efficient flight), despite using different anatomical structures (insect wings are exoskeletal extensions; pterosaur and bat wings are modified forelimbs with skin membranes; bird wings are feather-covered forelimbs).
- Hydrodynamics: As noted, streamlining for fast swimming is strongly constrained by fluid dynamics, producing convergence across fish, marine reptiles, marine mammals, and swimming birds.
- Optics: Image formation requires focusing light, which physics limits to a small set of solutions (lenses, pinholes, mirrors). Camera eyes using lenses have evolved repeatedly because lenses are the most efficient solution for high-resolution imaging in most environments.
Developmental constraints can either promote or prevent convergence:
- Modularity promotes convergence: If traits develop independently (modular development, Chapter 4), similar traits can evolve from different genetic starting points. Vertebrate and cephalopod eyes develop through entirely different genetic pathways (different developmental genes control eye formation), but both produce camera eyes because the underlying optical problem is the same.
- Integration prevents convergence: If traits are developmentally coupled (changing one requires changing others), lineages may get stuck at different local peaks. Mammalian teeth are integrated with jaw structure; changing tooth shape often requires changing jaw mechanics. This creates constraints that prevent full convergence - mammalian carnivores have diverse tooth forms (shearing carnassials in cats, bone-crushing molars in hyenas, fish-grabbing teeth in seals) because jaw integration creates multiple viable solutions.
Tradeoffs limit convergence:
- Specialist vs. generalist tradeoff: Specializing for one resource reduces ability to exploit others. Hummingbirds converged on long, thin beaks for nectar feeding, but this makes them poor seed-eaters. Finches that specialize on seeds cannot converge on hummingbird-like beaks without sacrificing seed-eating ability.
- Life history tradeoffs: Reproducing early vs. living long; many offspring vs. intensive parental care. These tradeoffs create multiple fitness peaks. r-selected species (organisms that reproduce rapidly with many offspring and minimal parental care, adapted to unstable environments) don't converge on K-selected strategies (organisms that reproduce slowly with few offspring and intensive parental care, adapted to stable environments), and vice versa, because each strategy is adaptive in different environments.
Molecular Convergence: Different Genes, Same Function
Convergence occurs not only at morphological and behavioral levels but also at molecular levels - different genetic mutations producing the same functional outcome. This is particularly well-studied in cases of parallel adaptation to extreme environments.
Hemoglobin adaptations to high altitude: Humans living at high altitude in the Andes, Tibet, and Ethiopia have independently evolved physiological adaptations to low oxygen levels (hypoxia: oxygen deprivation at high altitudes). However, the genetic basis differs:
- Andean populations: Increased hemoglobin concentration (more red blood cells) to carry more oxygen. Genetically, this involves upregulation of erythropoietin (EPO, a hormone that stimulates red blood cell production) and related genes.
- Tibetan populations: Blunted hemoglobin response (avoiding excessive red blood cell production, which thickens blood and risks clotting) and increased blood flow. Genetically, this involves mutations in EPAS1 and EGLN1 genes (genes that regulate how cells sense and respond to oxygen levels).
- Ethiopian populations: Unclear mechanism (not elevated hemoglobin like Andeans, not EPAS1 mutations like Tibetans), possibly involving other oxygen-transport genes.
All three populations converged on the functional outcome (surviving and reproducing at high altitude) but via different genetic routes. This illustrates that fitness landscapes can have multiple paths to the same peak - molecular convergence is less deterministic than morphological convergence because many genetic mutations can produce similar phenotypes (the observable physical and physiological traits of an organism).
Antifreeze proteins in polar fish: Antarctic notothenioid fish and Arctic cod independently evolved antifreeze glycoproteins (AFGPs) that prevent ice crystal formation in their blood. The proteins are functionally similar (both bind to ice crystals, inhibiting growth), but the genes encoding them are different:
- Notothenioid AFGPs: Evolved from a trypsinogen gene (a digestive enzyme) through duplication and modification.
- Arctic cod AFGPs: Evolved from a different gene, possibly through convergent recruitment of similar amino acid motifs.
The convergence is at the protein function level, not the genetic level - selection favored antifreeze function, and different lineages achieved it using different genomic raw materials.
Echolocation genes in bats and dolphins: Both groups independently evolved high-frequency hearing and vocal production for echolocation. Genomic studies reveal convergence at the amino acid sequence level in several hearing-related genes (Prestin, involved in outer hair cell function in the cochlea). Bats and dolphins both accumulated similar amino acid substitutions in Prestin, despite being separated by over 100 million years of evolution. This is convergence at the molecular level: the physics of high-frequency hearing constrain protein function, and natural selection independently discovered the same molecular solutions.
These examples reveal a spectrum of convergence:
- Strong convergence (morphological, behavioral): When physical/environmental constraints are strong, different lineages converge on nearly identical solutions (streamlined bodies, camera eyes, wings).
- Moderate convergence (functional): Different lineages converge on the same function but via different mechanisms (antifreeze proteins with different genetic origins, high-altitude adaptation via different genes).
- Weak convergence (molecular): Convergence at the sequence level occurs but is less common, because many mutations can produce similar functions (degeneracy of the genetic code, multiple protein structures achieving similar activity).
Limits of Convergence: Historical Contingency and Constraint
Convergent evolution is powerful but not unlimited. Historical contingency - the dependence of evolutionary outcomes on prior history - means that some solutions are inaccessible to certain lineages, and chance events can send evolution down non-convergent paths.
Case 1: Marsupial vs. placental mammals
Marsupials (kangaroos, koalas, opossums) and placental mammals (most other mammals) diverged ~160 million years ago. Since then, they've evolved in parallel across many ecological niches, showing convergence:
- Marsupial mole (Notoryctes) and golden mole (Chrysochloris): Both have reduced eyes, powerful forelimbs for digging, streamlined bodies - convergent adaptations for burrowing.
- Thylacine (extinct Tasmanian tiger, a marsupial) and gray wolf (placental): Both have similar skull shape, dentition, and body form - convergent adaptations for pursuit predation.
- Sugar glider (marsupial) and flying squirrel (placental): Both have gliding membranes between limbs - convergent adaptations for arboreal gliding.
Despite these convergences, marsupials and placentals differ fundamentally in reproductive biology: marsupials give birth to underdeveloped young that complete development in a pouch; placentals nourish embryos via a placenta and give birth to more developed young. This developmental difference constrains marsupial evolution - marsupial forelimbs must be sufficiently developed at birth to climb into the pouch, which limits forelimb specialization. As a result, no marsupial has evolved whale-like flippers (forelimbs modified into non-grasping paddles) or bat-like wings (forelimbs modified into flight structures), even though placental mammals evolved both. Historical contingency (early developmental mode) constrains which convergent solutions are accessible.
Case 2: QWERTY keyboard layout
An organizational example of historical contingency preventing convergence: the QWERTY keyboard layout, designed in the 1870s for mechanical typewriters, is suboptimal for typing speed and ergonomics. Alternative layouts (Dvorak, Colemak) demonstrably improve typing efficiency. Yet QWERTY persists globally - no convergence on the superior solution has occurred, because:
- Path dependence: Millions of people learned QWERTY; switching costs are high.
- Network effects: QWERTY's ubiquity makes it the default; manufacturers produce QWERTY keyboards because users expect them.
- Lock-in: Early adoption of QWERTY locked in the standard before alternatives could compete.
This illustrates that in systems with network effects and switching costs, historical contingency can prevent convergence on optimal solutions. Biology faces analogous constraints: the genetic code (which amino acids correspond to which DNA codons) is suboptimal but universal, because changing it would require coordinating changes across the entire genome - effectively impossible.
Case 3: The Great Faunal Interchange
When the Isthmus of Panama formed ~3 million years ago, connecting North and South America, mammals from both continents migrated across the new land bridge. This created a natural experiment: would North American and South American mammals converge when exposed to the same environments?
Partial convergence occurred:
- Convergent extinctions: Some South American mammals went extinct, outcompeted by North American counterparts (e.g., South American predatory marsupials replaced by North American placental carnivores).
- Convergent niche filling: North American species radiated into South American niches, and vice versa (sloths and armadillos moved north; bears and cats moved south).
But full convergence didn't occur:
- South America retained unique lineages: Sloths, anteaters, and capybaras (giant rodents) have no North American convergent equivalents.
- North America retained unique lineages: Bison, pronghorn, and many rodent lineages have no South American convergent equivalents.
The lack of complete convergence reflects ecological context and priority effects: established species occupy niches and resist displacement by immigrants, even if immigrants have functionally similar traits. Convergence is strongest when lineages independently colonize empty niches (as in island adaptive radiations, Chapter 4), not when they invade occupied ecosystems.
Convergence vs. Parallelism: Shared Ancestry or Independent Evolution?
A subtlety in evolutionary biology distinguishes convergent evolution (distantly related lineages independently evolving similar traits) from parallel evolution (closely related lineages independently evolving similar traits from shared ancestral potential).
Example: Stickleback fish armor loss
Threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) are small fish that ancestrally lived in the ocean with full bony armor (lateral plates protecting the body). After glacial retreat ~10,000 years ago, marine sticklebacks colonized thousands of freshwater lakes. In many lakes, populations independently evolved reduced armor - the same phenotypic change occurred repeatedly.
Is this convergence or parallelism? Genomic studies reveal it's parallelism: the armor reduction is caused by mutations in the same gene (Ectodysplasin, or EDA, a gene that regulates development of scales, armor plates, and other skin structures) in most populations. Moreover, the low-armor allele was already present at low frequency in the ancestral marine population as standing genetic variation (genetic diversity that already exists in a population before environmental change, rather than arising from new mutations). When sticklebacks colonized freshwater, selection favored the pre-existing low-armor allele, which rapidly increased in frequency.
This is parallel evolution: the populations aren't evolving the same trait independently via new mutations; they're selecting from shared ancestral variation. The similarity arises because all populations inherited the same genetic toolkit and faced the same selection pressure (freshwater lakes favor reduced armor, possibly because calcium is scarce for armor production or predation pressure is lower).
Distinction:
- Convergent evolution: Different genetic/developmental paths leading to similar outcomes (vertebrate vs. cephalopod eyes, bat vs. bird wings).
- Parallel evolution: Same genetic/developmental paths leading to similar outcomes (stickleback armor loss, high-altitude human adaptations partially drawing on shared genetic variation).
For organizations, the analog:
- Convergence: Companies with completely different origins independently arrive at similar strategies (Amazon and Walmart both adopting logistics automation, despite one starting as e-commerce and the other as brick-and-mortar retail).
- Parallelism: Companies with similar origins independently make the same strategic moves (all SaaS startups adopting freemium models - not true convergence, because they share a common "ancestral" SaaS playbook and face the same customer acquisition economics).
The distinction matters for prediction: parallelism is more predictable (shared genetic/strategic toolkit + similar environment = similar outcomes), while convergence is contingent on whether independent lineages can evolve similar solutions despite different starting points.
Part 2: Organizational Convergence in Action
Biology demonstrates that convergence is real, powerful, and predictable under specific conditions. The same principles apply to organizations. When companies face similar competitive pressures - strong selection, tight constraints, stable environments - they independently arrive at similar solutions. Not because they copy each other, but because the fitness landscape has a dominant peak.
The following cases illustrate convergence across industries, geographies, and business models, revealing which solutions are near-inevitable when certain competitive conditions arise.
Case 1: Aldi and Trader Joe's - Convergent Retail Minimalism
Essen, Germany, 1946. Karl and Theo Albrecht stood in what remained of their mother's small grocery store, one of the few buildings still standing in the bombed-out industrial city. Around them, Essen lay in ruins - factories destroyed by Allied bombing, infrastructure shattered, the population surviving on ration cards and bartered goods. Germany's economy had collapsed. Money was scarce. Food was scarcer.
The brothers, recently returned from the war, inherited their mother's shop with a simple reality: their customers had almost nothing. No money for luxuries, no patience for choice, no tolerance for waste. The brothers made a decision that would define their business for the next eight decades: sell only what people need, at the absolute lowest price possible, with zero frills.
They cut the product selection down to essentials - flour, milk, bread, eggs, a few canned goods. Maybe 300 items total. No brands - they sourced directly from suppliers and sold under generic labels to avoid advertising costs. No shelves - products stayed in their shipping cartons, stacked on the floor. No bags - customers brought their own or paid for them. No decorations, no staff beyond what was essential. They named the store Aldi - short for Albrecht Diskont, "Albrecht Discount."
Within a decade, Aldi had dozens of stores across Germany, all identical: small, sparse, ruthlessly efficient. Customers didn't come for the experience. They came because Aldi's prices were 30% below everyone else's.
Pasadena, California, 1967. Twenty-one years and 6,000 miles away, Joe Coulombe sat in the office of his convenience store chain, Pronto Markets, staring at expansion maps from 7-Eleven. The convenience store giant was moving into Southern California with hundreds of new locations. Coulombe did the math: 7-Eleven had scale, supply chain leverage, and capital. He had six stores and diminishing margins. He couldn't win a head-to-head price war. He was going to lose.
He needed a different strategy. Coulombe thought about his customers - educated, well-traveled Californians who'd studied abroad, vacationed in Europe, developed tastes for wine, cheese, unusual foods that mainstream supermarkets didn't carry. What if he stopped competing with 7-Eleven on convenience and instead targeted this niche? Offer unique, affordable products they couldn't find elsewhere. Make shopping an experience - friendly staff, quirky branding, a curated selection of interesting foods.
Coulombe rebranded his stores as Trader Joe's, gave them a nautical theme (tiki huts, Hawaiian shirts, hand-painted signs), and slashed his product selection from the 3,000 items typical convenience stores carried to about 1,200 carefully chosen SKUs. He eliminated national brands almost entirely, replacing them with private-label products under whimsical names: Trader José's salsa, Trader Ming's stir-fry sauce, Trader Giotto's pasta. He kept stores small and staff lean. No advertising - word of mouth would do. He poured savings into lower prices and higher wages for his crew.
Within a decade, Trader Joe's had a cult following across California.
The convergence. Here's what's remarkable: Aldi and Trader Joe's, despite emerging from completely different worlds - post-war scarcity versus 1960s California abundance; European efficiency versus American experiential retail - converged on nearly identical operational models. Look at the numbers (note: SKU means "stock keeping unit," an individual product available for sale):
| Dimension | Aldi | Trader Joe's |
|---|---|---|
| SKU count | ~1,400 | ~4,000 |
| Private label % | ~90% | ~80% |
| Store size | Small (~10,000 sq ft) | Small (~10,000-15,000 sq ft) |
| Checkout speed | Fastest in industry | Fast (small baskets, efficient layout) |
| Inventory turns | High (limited variety, fast restocking) | High (curated selection, rapid turnover) |
| Advertising spend | Minimal (word-of-mouth) | Minimal (Fearless Flyer newsletter) |
| Operating margins | 3-4% (vs. 1-2% for traditional grocers) | 3-4% (vs. 1-2% for traditional grocers) |
The strategies look different on the surface - Aldi projects thrift, Trader Joe's projects discovery - but the underlying economics are identical. Limited SKUs reduce inventory costs, warehouse complexity, and spoilage. Private labels eliminate brand rents and advertising expenses. Small stores minimize real estate costs. Lean staffing reduces labor costs. The result: both chains achieve operating margins double those of traditional supermarkets.
The irony? In 1979, Aldi Nord (the northern German branch of the Albrecht empire, split from Aldi Süd in 1960 due to family disputes) quietly acquired Trader Joe's. But they kept it operationally independent - Trader Joe's never reported to German management, never adopted Aldi's branding, never merged supply chains. Why? Because Aldi's executives recognized that Trader Joe's had independently discovered the same fitness peak from a completely different starting point. The convergence had occurred naturally. No integration was needed.
Why convergence occurred:
The fitness landscape for grocery retail has a dominant peak when optimizing for efficiency (not selection, not service, but cost per unit sold). The constraints:
- Real estate costs: High in urban areas, favoring small stores (less rent per store).
- Labor costs: High in developed countries, favoring minimal staffing.
- Inventory costs: Holding 30,000 SKUs requires warehousing, spoilage management, complex logistics.
- Brand negotiation: National brands extract rents from retailers via advertising costs and shelf space fees.
The solution space is constrained: to minimize costs, you must (1) reduce SKU count (lowers inventory and space costs), (2) maximize private label (eliminates brand rents), (3) minimize store footprint and labor, and (4) turn inventory fast. Aldi and Trader Joe's independently discovered this combination because the economic physics of retail pushed them toward the same peak.
Limits of convergence:
Not all grocers converge on this model. Whole Foods, Wegmans, and traditional supermarkets occupy different peaks on the fitness landscape, optimizing for selection (Whole Foods: 30,000+ SKUs, organic focus) or service (Wegmans: full-service delis, extensive prepared foods). These models persist because customer preferences create multiple peaks: some customers value convenience and low prices (Aldi/Trader Joe's peak), others value variety and quality (Whole Foods peak), others value service (Wegmans peak). The landscape has multiple viable strategies - convergence occurs within each strategy (all hard-discounters converge on Aldi-like models; all premium organic grocers converge on Whole Foods-like models), but not across strategies.
Case 2: Teladoc and Ping An Good Doctor - Convergent Telehealth Platforms
Teladoc Health (USA) and Ping An Good Doctor (China) are telehealth companies that independently converged on similar platform models despite operating in radically different healthcare systems and regulatory environments. Both became dominant digital health platforms in their respective markets by solving analogous patient access problems with convergent solutions.
Teladoc (USA, founded 2002):
- Problem addressed: U.S. healthcare access is fragmented, expensive, and inconvenient. Patients wait days for appointments, pay high co-pays, and struggle to see specialists.
- Solution: On-demand video/phone consultations with licensed physicians. Patients access doctors 24/7 without appointments, receive diagnoses and prescriptions remotely, pay lower fees than in-person visits.
- Business model: B2B2C (business-to-business-to-consumer: selling to employers and insurers, who then provide Teladoc as a benefit to their employees/members) + direct-to-consumer subscription. Revenue from consultation fees and subscription contracts.
- Scale: 54 million members (2022), 20+ million visits annually, $2.4 billion revenue.
Ping An Good Doctor (China, founded 2014):
- Problem addressed: China has severe doctor shortages and hospital overcrowding. Patients queue for hours to see doctors, top hospitals are overwhelmed, rural areas lack specialists.
- Solution: AI-assisted online consultations. Patients describe symptoms to AI chatbot, which triages and routes to appropriate doctor (AI handles ~50% of queries; complex cases escalated to physicians). Prescriptions delivered via integrated pharmacy.
- Business model: Initially B2C (consumers pay per consultation), later B2B2C (corporate wellness programs, insurance integration). Revenue from consultation fees, pharmaceutical sales, health management services.
- Scale: 400 million registered users (2022), 1 billion+ consultations cumulatively, ~$1 billion revenue.
Convergence:
Despite different healthcare systems (U.S. insurance-based vs. China government/out-of-pocket), both platforms independently converged on:
| Dimension | Teladoc | Ping An Good Doctor |
|---|---|---|
| Core offering | Remote physician consultations | Remote physician consultations (AI-triaged) |
| Access model | On-demand, 24/7 | On-demand, 24/7 |
| Revenue model | Subscription + per-visit fees | Per-visit fees + pharmaceutical sales |
| Customer acquisition | B2B2C (employers/insurers) + D2C | B2C + B2B2C (corporate wellness) |
| Technology stack | Video/phone + EMR integration | AI chatbot + video + EMR integration |
| Prescription fulfillment | E-prescribing (partner pharmacies) | Integrated online pharmacy |
| Expansion strategy | Acquisitions (Livongo for chronic care, BetterHelp for mental health) | Ecosystem expansion (insurance, wellness, diagnostics) |
Both recognized that telehealth's fitness peak involves:
- On-demand access (solving appointment wait times)
- Lower costs (solving high in-person visit fees)
- Digital-first UX (solving convenience)
- Integration with prescriptions (solving end-to-end patient journey)
- B2B2C distribution (solving customer acquisition costs)
Why convergence occurred:
The fitness landscape for digital health platforms is constrained by:
- Regulatory requirements: Both U.S. and China require licensed physicians for prescriptions, forcing platforms to employ/contract doctors (can't be pure AI).
- Patient behavior: Patients seek immediate medical advice for acute conditions (cold, flu, UTI, rashes) but are reluctant to use telehealth for serious/complex conditions (surgery, cancer, chronic disease management initially). This constrains platforms to focus on high-frequency, low-complexity consultations.
- Unit economics: Customer acquisition costs (CAC) are high in healthcare due to trust requirements. B2B2C distribution (selling to employers/insurers who provide free/subsidized access to employees/members) solves this by shifting CAC to corporate buyers. Both platforms converged on B2B2C because the economics are superior.
- Technology capabilities: Video/AI chatbots are the only scalable modalities for remote consultations (phone is older tech; text-only is insufficient for complex triage). Both platforms converged on video + AI.
Divergence points:
Despite operational convergence, strategic divergence emerged due to environmental differences:
- Ping An Good Doctor uses more AI (60% of consultations AI-only vs. 0% for Teladoc) because China's doctor shortage is more severe, creating stronger selection pressure for AI substitution.
- Ping An Good Doctor integrated pharmacy sales (selling medications directly) because China's pharmaceutical distribution is less regulated and more fragmented than the U.S., making vertical integration feasible. Teladoc partners with pharmacies instead due to U.S. regulatory constraints and established pharmacy networks.
- Teladoc emphasizes mental health (via BetterHelp acquisition) because U.S. demand for remote therapy is higher due to stigma around in-person psychiatric visits and insurance coverage for teletherapy. Ping An Good Doctor focuses less on mental health, reflecting lower Chinese demand and less insurance coverage.
Case 3: Shopify and MercadoLibre - Convergent E-Commerce Enablement
Shopify (Canada) and MercadoLibre (Argentina/Latin America) are e-commerce platforms that independently converged on similar business models - enabling small merchants to sell online - despite serving different geographies and starting from different origins.
Shopify (Canada, founded 2006):
- Origin: Tobias Lütke and partners wanted to sell snowboards online but found existing e-commerce platforms inadequate. They built their own, then realized the platform itself was more valuable than the snowboard business.
- Model: Provide turnkey e-commerce infrastructure (website builder, payment processing, inventory management, shipping) to merchants who lack technical capabilities. Merchants pay monthly subscription + transaction fees.
- Scale: 2+ million merchants, $196 billion GMV (gross merchandise value: the total value of goods sold through the platform) in 2022, $5.6 billion revenue.
- Geographic focus: Initially North America, later global.
MercadoLibre (Argentina, founded 1999):
- Origin: Marcos Galperin and partners launched an auction-style marketplace (eBay clone for Latin America) during the dot-com boom. Realized merchant payment and logistics infrastructure was inadequate in Latin America, built their own.
- Model: Marketplace + merchant services. Started as C2C/B2C marketplace (like eBay/Amazon), expanded into payment processing (MercadoPago) and logistics (MercadoEnvios). Merchants pay transaction fees + commissions.
- Scale: 140+ million active users, $28 billion GMV (2022), $10 billion revenue.
- Geographic focus: Latin America (18 countries).
Convergence:
Despite different starting points (Shopify: merchant infrastructure first, marketplace later; MercadoLibre: marketplace first, infrastructure later), both converged on integrated e-commerce ecosystems:
| Dimension | Shopify | MercadoLibre |
|---|---|---|
| Core offering | Merchant infrastructure (stores, payments, shipping) | Marketplace + merchant infrastructure |
| Merchant target | Small/medium businesses lacking technical resources | Small/medium sellers lacking infrastructure |
| Payment processing | Shopify Payments (in-house) | MercadoPago (in-house) |
| Logistics | Shopify Fulfillment Network (warehousing, shipping) | MercadoEnvios (warehousing, shipping) |
| Financing | Shopify Capital (merchant cash advances) | MercadoCredito (merchant lending) |
| Revenue model | Subscription + transaction fees | Transaction fees + commissions |
Both recognized that e-commerce success for small merchants requires solving three problems simultaneously:
- Storefront (website/listings)
- Payments (processing credit cards, preventing fraud)
- Logistics (warehousing, shipping, returns)
Traditional solutions fragmented these (merchants cobbled together separate providers for each), creating friction. Shopify and MercadoLibre converged on vertical integration - providing all three in one platform - because the bundled solution has superior unit economics and customer retention.
Why convergence occurred:
The fitness landscape for e-commerce enablement is constrained by:
- Merchant pain points: Small merchants lack resources to negotiate with payment processors, build fraud detection, manage warehouses, integrate shipping APIs. Bundled solutions reduce complexity.
- Network effects: Payment and logistics platforms benefit from scale (lower per-transaction costs, better shipping rates, more fraud data). Vertically integrated platforms achieve scale faster than fragmented providers.
- Revenue optimization: Subscription + transaction fees create recurring revenue and align incentives (platform succeeds when merchants succeed). Both platforms converged on this model.
Divergence points:
Environmental differences created strategic divergence:
- MercadoLibre operates own marketplace (like Amazon) because Latin American e-commerce was nascent in 1999 - no existing merchant base to serve. MercadoLibre had to create demand (marketplace) before providing infrastructure.
- Shopify avoided marketplace (until recently, with Shopify Collabs) because North American merchants could already sell on Amazon/eBay. Shopify's value proposition was enabling merchants to own their customer relationships (direct stores) rather than depending on marketplace algorithms.
- MercadoLibre emphasized fintech (MercadoPago now serves non-e-commerce use cases, like peer-to-peer payments and QR code payments in physical stores) because Latin America had low financial inclusion and weak payment infrastructure. Shopify Payments remains focused on e-commerce because North America had established payment systems.
These divergences reflect local adaptation: both platforms share core e-commerce infrastructure convergence, but MercadoLibre's marketplace and fintech expansion fit Latin American constraints (low e-commerce maturity, low financial inclusion), while Shopify's merchant-first approach fits North American constraints (high e-commerce maturity, high financial inclusion).
Case 4: Workday and SAP SuccessFactors - Convergent Cloud HCM
Workday (USA, founded 2005) and SAP SuccessFactors (USA/Germany, founded 2001 as SuccessFactors, acquired by SAP 2011) are human capital management (HCM) software platforms that independently converged on cloud-native architectures for HR systems, despite different founding teams and initial market positioning.
Workday:
- Origin: Founded by Dave Duffield and Aneel Bhusri (both previously at PeopleSoft, an on-premise HR software company acquired by Oracle 2005). Thesis: enterprise HR software would shift to cloud (SaaS).
- Model: Cloud-native HCM suite (HRIS, payroll, recruiting, talent management, workforce planning). Subscription-based, single-tenant architecture.
- Scale: 10,000+ customers, $7 billion revenue (FY2024).
SAP SuccessFactors:
- Origin: Founded as SuccessFactors (performance management software) in 2001. SAP acquired it in 2011 to compete with Workday's cloud HCM offering. SAP rebuilt SuccessFactors on cloud architecture.
- Model: Cloud HCM suite (originally performance management, expanded to full HRIS). Multi-tenant SaaS.
- Scale: 100+ million users, part of SAP's $30+ billion revenue (SuccessFactors revenue not separately disclosed).
Convergence:
Both platforms converged on:
| Dimension | Workday | SAP SuccessFactors |
|---|---|---|
| Deployment | Cloud SaaS | Cloud SaaS |
| Architecture | Unified platform (single codebase for all HR functions) | Unified suite (integrated modules) |
| Update cycle | Continuous updates (2x/year) | Continuous updates |
| Pricing | Subscription per employee | Subscription per employee |
| Target market | Mid-market to enterprise | Mid-market to enterprise |
| Mobile-first | Yes (apps for managers/employees) | Yes (mobile apps) |
| Analytics | Embedded reporting and dashboards | Embedded analytics |
Both recognized that enterprise HCM's fitness peak in the 2000s-2010s involved:
- Cloud delivery (eliminating on-premise IT burden)
- Unified data model (single source of truth for employee data, eliminating integration headaches from disparate systems)
- Continuous updates (automatic feature rollout, no costly upgrade projects)
- Mobile access (employees and managers access HR systems from phones)
- Embedded analytics (reporting built into workflows, not separate BI tools)
Why convergence occurred:
The fitness landscape for enterprise HCM shifted due to technological and market changes:
- Cloud infrastructure maturation (AWS, Azure) made SaaS economically viable by 2005-2010. Previously, enterprise software required on-premise servers, creating high switching costs and favoring incumbents (SAP, Oracle). Cloud reduced switching costs, enabling challengers like Workday.
- Mobile adoption (iPhone 2007, Android 2008) changed user expectations: employees wanted HR self-service on phones (view pay stubs, request time off, enroll in benefits). On-premise systems couldn't iterate fast enough to add mobile UX; cloud-native systems had continuous deployment and updated UX rapidly.
- Regulatory complexity (ACA, GDPR, varying labor laws) created demand for systems that automatically update to maintain compliance. Cloud SaaS enabled vendors to push compliance updates to all customers simultaneously; on-premise required manual patching.
These constraints made cloud-native HCM the dominant fitness peak. Legacy on-premise vendors (PeopleSoft, ADP) either migrated to cloud (ADP launched cloud HCM) or declined. Workday and SuccessFactors converged because the environmental pressures pointed to a single optimal solution.
Divergence points:
Despite architectural convergence, strategic divergence:
- Workday added financials (enterprise resource planning, ERP) to become multi-product suite (HCM + Financials). SuccessFactors remains HCM-only, with SAP's broader ERP suite (S/4HANA) as separate products. This reflects different corporate strategies: Workday is independent and must expand total addressable market; SuccessFactors is part of SAP's portfolio and leverages cross-sell.
- SuccessFactors emphasizes SAP integration (tight integration with SAP ERP for customers running SAP financials). Workday emphasizes standalone value.
Case 5: Revolut and the Asian Super-Apps - Convergent Financial Ecosystems
In 2014, Nikolay Storonsky, a derivatives trader at Credit Suisse, returned from a ski trip furious. He'd been charged £55 in foreign exchange fees on a card that promised "no fees." The hidden markup on currency conversion - standard practice for banks - had cost him more than a day's lift ticket. Sitting in a London pub with his friend Vlad Yatsenko, a software developer, Storonsky sketched out a simple idea: a prepaid card that charged actual interbank exchange rates, not the inflated retail rates banks used to extract profits from travelers.
They launched Revolut in July 2015 with a narrow value proposition: fair FX rates via a mobile app and prepaid card. The product was simple - load pounds, spend euros at the real exchange rate, save money. Within six months, they had 100,000 customers, mostly young professionals traveling frequently across Europe. The problem they solved was specific: currency exchange for travelers.
But something unexpected happened. Customers didn't just want FX. They wanted current accounts. Then they wanted to buy stocks. Then cryptocurrency. Then insurance. Then credit. Each feature request revealed the same underlying pattern: existing financial institutions fragmented services across separate providers (one bank for accounts, another for brokerage, another for FX, another for insurance), each charging fees and requiring separate apps, logins, and account management. Customers wanted integration - one app, one relationship, one source of financial truth.
Revolut responded by expanding rapidly. By 2017, they'd added bank accounts and crypto trading. By 2018, stock trading. By 2019, insurance and business accounts. By 2021, credit products and lending. As of 2025, Revolut offers over a dozen financial services in a single app, serving over 65 million customers globally with a valuation of $75 billion (November 2025).
The remarkable thing? Revolut independently evolved the exact structure pioneered by Asian fintech companies - WeChat (China), Paytm (India), and Grab (Southeast Asia) - despite operating in a completely different regulatory environment and starting from a different problem.
Convergence across geographies:
| Dimension | Revolut (Europe) | WeChat (China) | Paytm (India) | Grab (Southeast Asia) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starting point | FX travel card (2015) | Messaging app (2011) | Mobile payments (2010) | Ride-hailing (2012) |
| Evolution | → Banking → Trading → Insurance → Credit | → Payments → Banking → Wealth → Insurance | → Payments → Banking → Wealth → Insurance | → Payments → Food → Finance → Insurance |
| Current scope | 12+ financial services | 30+ services (finance + lifestyle) | 20+ services (finance + commerce) | 15+ services (transport + finance + lifestyle) |
| Users | 52M (2024) | 1.3B (2024) | 450M (2023) | 40M (2023) |
| Regulatory environment | UK/EU banking regulations | Chinese government oversight | Indian central bank regulations | Southeast Asian fragmentation |
None of these companies copied each other - they converged because the same selection pressures applied:
- Margin compression on core product: FX, messaging, payments, and ride-hailing all face intense competition and declining unit economics. Survival requires expanding revenue per user.
- Mobile-first user behavior: Customers prefer single-app solutions over juggling multiple financial relationships.
- Regulatory fragmentation: Traditional financial institutions are slow to innovate due to regulatory burden. Tech-first companies can move faster by building compliance into software.
- Network effects and data advantages: More services create more user stickiness and better cross-sell opportunities. Transaction data from one service improves others (e.g., payment history informs credit underwriting).
The fitness landscape for digital finance has a dominant peak: the integrated financial super-app. Whether you start from FX (Revolut), messaging (WeChat), payments (Paytm), or transportation (Grab), the economic forces push toward the same destination. Convergent evolution.
Divergence points:
Despite structural convergence, regional adaptation persists:
- Revolut emphasizes wealth products (stocks, crypto) because European customers have higher disposable income and strong investment culture.
- WeChat emphasizes lifestyle services (mini-programs for e-commerce, food delivery, government services) because China's digital ecosystem is more integrated.
- Paytm emphasizes offline payments (QR codes for small merchants) because India's cash economy is larger and merchant infrastructure less developed.
- Grab emphasizes mobility services (motorcycles, car rentals, logistics) because Southeast Asian urban transportation remains fragmented.
The convergence reveals a fundamental truth: when digital platforms compete for customer wallet share in mobile-first markets, they evolve toward comprehensive financial ecosystems regardless of starting point.
Part 3: The Convergence Prediction Framework
The biological and business cases reveal the same pattern: certain solutions are near-inevitable under specific conditions. But how do you know which practices in your industry will converge, and which permit differentiation? When should you adopt "best practices," and when should you resist the herd?
The Convergence Prediction Framework answers these questions. It helps diagnose whether convergence is likely in your industry, identify which dimensions will converge versus which allow sustainable differentiation, and decide when to adopt convergent practices versus when to stake out alternative fitness peaks.
Diagnosing Convergence Potential: Strong vs. Weak Selection Pressures
Strong selection pressures produce convergence:
- High competitive intensity: When many players compete for the same customers and profit margins are thin, selection ruthlessly eliminates inefficiency. Only optimal (or near-optimal) strategies survive. All survivors converge on the optimal strategy.
- Example: Budget airlines (Ryanair, Spirit, Southwest) converge on no-frills models (no free checked bags, no meals, dense seating, secondary airports) because competition is intense and margins are low. Any deviation from cost minimization leads to losses.
- Regulatory constraints: When regulations mandate specific requirements, all players must comply, creating convergence.
- Example: Pharmaceutical companies converge on Phase I-II-III clinical trial structures because FDA/EMA require them. No alternative paths exist.
- Physical/technological constraints: When fundamental physics or technology limits solutions, convergence is inevitable.
- Example: All smartphone manufacturers converge on touchscreens, app stores, mobile operating systems (iOS or Android), rectangular form factors, because these are the only viable solutions given current technology and user expectations.
Weak selection pressures permit divergence:
- Low competitive intensity: When competition is weak (monopoly, oligopoly with differentiated niches), companies can pursue suboptimal strategies without being eliminated. Multiple fitness peaks coexist.
- Example: Luxury fashion brands (Hermès, Chanel, Louis Vuitton) don't converge on a single business model. Each has distinctive strategies (Hermès: extreme scarcity and craftsmanship, Chanel: timeless classics with seasonal variations, Louis Vuitton: monogram ubiquity and global accessibility). Low competition allows differentiation.
- Customer heterogeneity: When customers have diverse preferences, multiple solutions satisfy different segments. The fitness landscape has multiple peaks.
- Example: Automotive industry doesn't converge - luxury brands (Mercedes, BMW), mass-market brands (Toyota, Honda), and budget brands (Kia, Hyundai) coexist because customers value different attributes (status, reliability, affordability).
- Low switching costs and network effects: When customers can easily switch between providers and there are no network effects, differentiation is sustainable. Converging on a competitor's model doesn't guarantee success.
- Example: Coffee shops don't fully converge. Starbucks (fast, standardized, mobile ordering), Blue Bottle (craft, slow bar), and local independents coexist because switching costs are zero and customer preferences vary.
Framework for assessing convergence likelihood:
Ask these diagnostic questions:
- How intense is competitive pressure in your industry?
- Very high (commoditized, low margins, many competitors) → Convergence likely
- Moderate (some differentiation, reasonable margins) → Partial convergence
- Low (oligopoly, high margins, brand loyalty) → Divergence possible
- Are there technological or physical constraints limiting solutions?
- Yes, strong constraints (e.g., laws of physics, regulatory mandates, technological bottlenecks) → Convergence likely
- No, or weak constraints → Divergence possible
- Are customer preferences homogeneous or heterogeneous?
- Homogeneous (most customers want the same thing) → Convergence likely
- Heterogeneous (customer segments value different attributes) → Divergence possible
- Are there network effects or switching costs?
- High network effects (value increases with scale) → Convergence likely (winner-take-most)
- Low or no network effects → Divergence possible
- How stable is the competitive environment?
- Stable (unchanging customer needs, technology, regulations) → Convergence likely (time for selection to optimize)
- Rapidly changing → Divergence likely (insufficient time for convergence; exploration valuable)
Decision matrix:
| Competitive Intensity | Constraints | Customer Preferences | Environment | Convergence Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Strong | Homogeneous | Stable | Very High - expect industry-wide convergence on best practices |
| High | Weak | Heterogeneous | Stable | Moderate - convergence within segments, divergence across segments |
| Low | Strong | Homogeneous | Stable | Moderate - convergence on required elements, differentiation elsewhere |
| Low | Weak | Heterogeneous | Changing | Low - differentiation sustainable, multiple viable strategies |
Identifying Which Practices Will Converge
Not all aspects of business models converge - some dimensions have dominant solutions while others permit variation. Distinguish convergent dimensions (where all competitors will eventually adopt similar approaches) from divergent dimensions (where differentiation persists).
Convergent dimensions typically involve:
- Core technology stack (when technology creates strong advantages):
- Cloud computing: All SaaS companies converge on cloud infrastructure (AWS, Azure, GCP) because on-premise is economically inferior.
- Mobile-first design: All consumer apps converge on mobile-native UX because desktop-first is inferior user experience.
- Regulatory compliance (mandatory):
- GDPR compliance: All companies serving EU customers converge on data protection practices because non-compliance is illegal.
- Financial reporting standards: All public companies converge on GAAP or IFRS because stock exchanges mandate them.
- Unit economics optimization (when there's a clearly superior cost structure):
- Inventory turns: Retailers converge on just-in-time inventory when feasible because holding excess inventory increases costs.
- Subscription revenue: SaaS companies converge on recurring revenue because it's more predictable and valuable than one-time licenses.
- Distribution channels (when one channel dominates economics):
- Digital advertising: Consumer brands converge on Facebook/Google/Amazon ads because CPMs are lower than traditional media.
- App stores: Mobile app developers converge on iOS/Android app stores because that's where users are (network effects).
Industry-Specific Convergence Examples:
Pharmaceutical R&D: All major drug companies converged on Phase I-II-III clinical trial structures, FDA regulatory pathways, and patent-then-generic lifecycle models because regulatory requirements and drug development physics permit no alternatives. Pfizer, Novartis, and Merck differ in therapeutic focus (oncology, immunology, vaccines) but follow identical development processes. Convergence on process. Divergence on product portfolio. The regulatory landscape has one dominant peak.
Automotive Manufacturing: Toyota's lean manufacturing principles (just-in-time inventory, continuous improvement, defect reduction) were independently discovered by other automakers facing the same constraints: high capital costs, thin margins, quality competition. By 2010, Ford, GM, Volkswagen, and Hyundai had converged on lean practices despite initial resistance. The physics of automobile production - high fixed costs, low variable costs, quality sensitivity - create a single-peak fitness landscape for manufacturing efficiency. Brands diverge on design and features. They converge on production systems.
Direct-to-Consumer Retail: Warby Parker (eyewear), Casper (mattresses), Dollar Shave Club (razors), and Allbirds (shoes) independently converged on the same business model between 2010-2016: eliminate retail middlemen, sell direct online, use social media for customer acquisition, emphasize brand story and sustainability. None copied each other - they responded to the same selection pressures (Facebook/Instagram ad targeting reduced customer acquisition costs, Shopify reduced e-commerce technical barriers, incumbents had 50-60% retail markups). Convergent pathway from different product categories. The digital advertising + e-commerce infrastructure landscape made DTC inevitable.
B2B SaaS Sales Models: Companies serving small businesses (HubSpot, Zoom, Slack) converged on product-led growth (PLG) - free trials, self-serve signup, viral loops, usage-based upsells. Companies serving enterprises (Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow) converged on sales-led growth - outbound sales teams, custom demos, negotiated contracts, multi-year commitments. The convergence isn't random: small business unit economics can't support high-touch sales (customer lifetime value too low), while enterprise deals require customization and buy-in from multiple stakeholders. Customer segment constraints create two distinct peaks. You can't profitably sell $10/month products with a sales team, and you can't sell $500K enterprise contracts with a self-serve signup flow.
Divergent dimensions typically involve:
- Brand positioning (customer preferences heterogeneous):
- Luxury vs. value: Even within an industry, brands can differentiate on price/quality spectrum without converging.
- Values-based positioning: Patagonia's environmentalism vs. North Face's performance vs. Canada Goose's luxury don't converge because they serve different customer psychographics.
- Product features (when customer needs vary):
- Enterprise software: CRM platforms (Salesforce, HubSpot, Pipedrive) diverge on complexity (Salesforce: highly customizable, Pipedrive: simple and opinionated) because customers have different needs.
- Automobiles: SUVs, sedans, trucks, sports cars don't converge because use cases differ.
- Organizational culture (path-dependent, not directly selected by customers):
- Remote vs. in-office: Some companies converge on remote-first (GitLab, Automattic), others maintain offices (Apple, Goldman Sachs). Both can succeed in their respective industries because culture doesn't directly determine competitiveness (though it affects recruiting).
Framework for classifying practices:
For each business practice (pricing model, technology choice, org structure, go-to-market strategy), ask:
- Does this practice directly affect unit economics or customer value in measurable ways?
- Yes → Likely to converge (selection acts on it)
- No → May diverge (selection is weak)
- Are there clear winners in A/B tests or performance data?
- Yes (e.g., subscription pricing outperforms perpetual licenses in SaaS) → Convergence likely
- No (e.g., no consensus on best org structure) → Divergence likely
- Have multiple independent companies adopted this practice without copying each other?
- Yes → Strong evidence of convergence (Aldi and Trader Joe's both arrived at limited SKUs independently)
- No → May be fad or context-specific
- Is this practice required by external constraints (regulation, technology, physics)?
- Yes → Convergence inevitable
- No → Divergence possible
Distinguishing True Convergence from Copying and Fads
Not all similarity is convergent evolution. Companies may adopt similar practices due to copying (observing competitors and imitating) or fads (industry trends driven by social proof rather than selection). True convergence is independent discovery of similar solutions due to similar selection pressures.
Diagnostic tests:
Test 1: Temporal sequence
- Convergence: Companies adopt the practice at similar times, even if geographically or organizationally distant (suggesting independent discovery in response to common environmental change).
- Copying: Companies adopt the practice sequentially, with later adopters explicitly citing earlier adopters as inspiration.
Example: Cloud-native architecture was adopted independently by Salesforce (2000), Netflix (2008), and Workday (2005) at similar times, without one copying the other - this is convergence. Later SaaS companies copying them is imitation, not convergence.
Test 2: Geographic independence
- Convergence: The practice emerges independently in different geographies with minimal information flow between them.
- Copying: The practice spreads from one geography to others through knowledge diffusion.
Example: Aldi (Germany) and Trader Joe's (USA) independently converged on limited SKU models before Aldi acquired Trader Joe's - convergence. When Aldi expanded to the U.S. (under Aldi Süd banner), it brought its model deliberately - copying, not convergence.
Test 3: Persistence despite turnover
- Convergence: The practice persists even as employees and executives turn over, suggesting it's competitively necessary rather than driven by specific individuals' preferences.
- Fad: The practice disappears when leadership changes or when the hype cycle ends.
Example: Subscription pricing in SaaS has persisted across decades and leadership changes (Salesforce, Adobe, Microsoft all shifted to subscription despite executive turnover) - convergence. Open-plan offices were a fad in the 2010s; many companies reverted to hybrid layouts after COVID-19, revealing it wasn't competitively necessary.
Test 4: Performance correlation
- Convergence: Companies that adopt the practice significantly outperform those that don't, and performance difference persists over time.
- Fad: No consistent performance difference between adopters and non-adopters, or performance difference is temporary.
Example: E-commerce companies that adopted mobile-responsive design outperformed those that didn't (2010-2015 data show mobile conversion rates 2-3x higher for responsive sites) - convergence. Companies that adopted "growth hacking" as a practice showed no consistent performance advantage - fad.
Navigating Convergence: When to Adopt, When to Differentiate
Once you've identified that convergence is occurring on specific dimensions, the strategic question becomes: Should you converge (adopt industry best practices) or differentiate (pursue alternative approaches)?
When to converge (adopt the dominant practice):
- When the practice is regulatory or technologically mandatory: No choice - converge or fail.
- Example: All automakers must converge on emissions standards to sell in regulated markets.
- When the practice creates strong competitive disadvantage if not adopted: Converging is defensive - not adopting puts you at a cost or quality disadvantage that customers won't tolerate.
- Example: Retailers must adopt e-commerce (even if brick-and-mortar is their strength) because customer expectations have shifted. Not having online ordering is a dealbreaker for many customers.
- When network effects favor standardization: If customers value interoperability or compatibility, converging on industry standards is necessary.
- Example: SaaS companies must integrate with Salesforce/Microsoft/Google ecosystems because customers use those platforms and expect integrations.
- When the practice is in a low-differentiation domain: If the practice doesn't affect customer-perceived value (backend operations, compliance, infrastructure), converging reduces costs and risk without sacrificing competitive position.
- Example: Most companies converge on AWS/Azure/GCP for cloud infrastructure because customers don't care which cloud provider you use - it's invisible to them.
When to differentiate (resist convergence):
- When the convergent practice conflicts with your core value proposition: If adopting the dominant practice would erode what makes you unique, differentiation is strategic even if most competitors converge.
- Example: Patagonia resists fast-fashion practices (frequent new collections, trend-driven design, disposable quality) even though most apparel brands converge on them, because Patagonia's brand is built on durability and environmental responsibility.
- When you have a structural advantage in a non-convergent approach: If you're better suited to a different peak on the fitness landscape due to unique capabilities or resources, occupy that peak rather than competing at the convergent peak.
- Example: Costco resists convergence on e-commerce (only ~6-7% of revenue from online vs. 20-30% for competitors) because its membership model and treasure-hunt in-store experience are structural advantages that online erodes.
- When the fitness landscape is multi-peaked and you can dominate an alternative peak: If the convergent practice serves one customer segment but other segments are underserved, differentiate to own the alternative segment.
- Example: While most CRM platforms converge on complexity (customizable, feature-rich for enterprises), Pipedrive differentiated by targeting small businesses with simplicity - a different fitness peak.
- When convergence is a fad, not true selection: If diagnostic tests suggest the practice is socially-driven (copying, hype) rather than performance-driven, resisting convergence avoids wasting resources.
- Example: Companies that resisted adopting blockchain for non-cryptocurrency use cases (2017-2019 hype) avoided costly dead-ends.
Framework for convergence decisions:
| Scenario | Recommendation | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory/technological mandate | Converge immediately | No alternative; non-compliance is fatal |
| Strong competitive disadvantage if not adopted | Converge quickly | Defensive necessity; customers won't tolerate non-adoption |
| Network effects favor standard | Converge (adopt standard) | Customers value compatibility; differentiation creates friction |
| Backend/infrastructure practice | Converge (buy vs. build) | Low differentiation value; converging reduces cost and risk |
| Conflicts with core differentiation | Differentiate deliberately | Converging erodes competitive advantage |
| Structural advantage in alternative | Differentiate (exploit advantage) | Occupy different fitness peak where you're stronger |
| Multi-peaked landscape | Differentiate (target underserved segment) | Convergent peak is crowded; alternative peak is open |
| Fad without performance evidence | Resist convergence | No competitive benefit; avoid distraction |
Implementation Guide: The 2-Week Convergence Audit
The frameworks above provide diagnostic tools. This section provides a step-by-step process to analyze convergence in your industry and make strategic decisions. Allocate 10-15 hours over two weeks (ideally split across strategy, product, and operations leaders).
Week 1: Map the Fitness Landscape
Day 1-2: Identify Practices (2-3 hours)
- List 15-20 significant business practices across your company:
- Technology choices (cloud, mobile, AI, stack)
- Pricing/revenue models (subscription, usage-based, freemium)
- Distribution channels (direct sales, partners, self-serve, marketplaces)
- Product features (core functionality, integrations, UX patterns)
- Operations (supply chain, fulfillment, customer support)
- Organization structure (remote, hierarchical, team size)
- For each practice, document:
- When you adopted it (year)
- Why you adopted it (copied competitor, independent decision, regulatory requirement, founder preference)
- What alternatives exist (what competitors do differently)
Day 3-4: Assess Convergence Evidence (3-4 hours)
- For each practice, gather data:
- How many competitors use this practice? (List 5-10 direct competitors and categorize: identical, similar, different)
- Did they adopt it independently or sequentially? (Check press releases, founding stories, geographic spread)
- When did each adopt it? (Create timeline)
- Does it correlate with performance? (Compare revenue growth, retention, margins for adopters vs. non-adopters)
- Classify each practice using the diagnostic tests (page [reference to tests above]):
- Convergence (independent adoption, performance correlation, persistence) → Mark green
- Copying (sequential adoption, explicit imitation) → Mark yellow
- Fad (hype-driven, no performance data, recent adoption) → Mark red
- Path-dependent (you adopted early, competitors didn't follow, or vice versa) → Mark blue
Day 5: Identify Selection Pressures (2 hours)
- For each convergent practice (green), identify the selection pressure driving it:
- Regulatory requirement?
- Technological constraint?
- Customer demand (measured how)?
- Unit economics advantage (quantify cost/margin difference)
- Network effects?
- Rate strength of selection pressure (1-5 scale):
- 5 = Mandatory (e.g., regulatory compliance)
- 4 = Strong competitive disadvantage if not adopted (e.g., mobile responsiveness for e-commerce)
- 3 = Moderate advantage (e.g., subscription pricing improving LTV/CAC)
- 2 = Weak or contested (e.g., open-plan offices)
- 1 = No evidence of advantage (e.g., trendy jargon)
Week 2: Make Strategic Decisions
Day 6-7: Prioritize Convergence Gaps (2-3 hours)
- Identify gaps where you should converge but haven't:
- Practices rated green (convergence) + high selection pressure (4-5) + you haven't adopted = convergence debt
- Rank by urgency: regulatory/technological mandates first, then competitive disadvantages, then optimization opportunities
- For each gap, estimate:
- Effort to adopt (person-weeks, budget, technical complexity)
- Risk of not adopting (customer churn, regulatory penalty, margin loss)
- Timeline to implement (realistic: 1 month? 6 months? 18 months?)
Day 8-9: Identify Differentiation Opportunities (2-3 hours)
- Identify practices where you could deliberately differentiate:
- Practices competitors converge on (green) + low selection pressure (1-2) + conflicts with your differentiation = differentiation opportunity
- Practices you do differently (blue) + performance is strong = sustainable differentiation (protect this)
- For each differentiation candidate, assess:
- Does it strengthen your core value proposition? (How?)
- Do you have structural advantages supporting it? (Unique capabilities, resources, network)
- Is there a customer segment that values this difference? (Size? Willingness to pay?)
Day 10: Create Action Plan (2 hours)
- Synthesize into three categories:
- Converge immediately (regulatory mandates, severe competitive disadvantages): List top 3, assign owners, set 90-day deadlines
- Converge strategically (optimization opportunities, customer expectations): Prioritize by ROI, add to roadmap
- Differentiate deliberately (sustainable advantages, underserved segments): Invest to widen gap from competitors, communicate differentiation to customers
- Resist convergence (fads, misaligned practices): Explicitly decide not to adopt, communicate rationale internally to avoid pressure
- Document decision framework for future practices:
- When new industry practice emerges, run diagnostic tests (convergence vs. copying vs. fad)
- Assess selection pressure strength
- Default to "wait 6 months, reassess" unless pressure is 4-5 (then move quickly)
Example Output: Convergence Audit Summary
| Practice | Status | Selection Pressure | Decision | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOC 2 compliance | Gap | 5 (regulatory) | Converge immediately | 90 days |
| Usage-based pricing | Gap | 4 (competitive disadvantage) | Converge strategically | 6 months |
| AI chatbot support | Gap | 3 (customer expectation) | Evaluate pilots | 12 months |
| Open-source core product | Blue (differentiated) | 2 (community-driven growth) | Maintain differentiation | Ongoing |
| Annual planning cycles | Convergent | 2 (process preference) | Consider quarterly | 2024 review |
| Unlimited PTO policy | Fad | 1 (no performance correlation) | Resist convergence | N/A |
Resource Requirements:
- Team: 2-4 people (strategy lead, product lead, 1-2 operators with competitive intelligence)
- Time: 10-15 hours total over 2 weeks (5-8 hours week 1, 5-7 hours week 2)
- Tools: Spreadsheet for tracking practices, competitor research (public data, customer interviews, industry reports)
- Cadence: Run full audit annually; update quarterly for new practices or major competitive shifts
Common Pitfalls:
- Over-converging: Adopting every "best practice" erodes differentiation. Reserve 20-30% of strategic bets for differentiation.
- Under-converging: Resisting mandatory convergence (regulatory, technological) out of stubbornness leads to competitive death.
- Mistaking copying for convergence: Just because competitors do it doesn't mean you should. Run diagnostic tests.
- Ignoring multi-peaked landscapes: Don't fight for the convergent peak if you can dominate an alternative peak.
Conclusion: The Inevitability and Limits of Similarity
Next time you see competitors converging on similar strategies - subscription pricing, remote work, AI adoption, direct-to-consumer models - ask yourself: is this copying, or convergence?
Copying is social. Convergence is physical. Copying spreads through imitation. Convergence emerges from constraints. When all smartphone manufacturers adopt touchscreens, that's not groupthink. It's the only viable solution given current technology and user expectations. The fitness landscape has one dominant peak. Everyone climbs toward it.
But here's what matters: not everything converges. The fitness landscape has many peaks. Patagonia doesn't need to adopt fast-fashion practices to succeed. Costco doesn't need to match Amazon's e-commerce percentage. Pipedrive doesn't need Salesforce's complexity. They occupy different peaks. Multiple strategies can win simultaneously.
Your challenge isn't to blindly adopt "best practices." It's to distinguish which practices represent convergent peaks (where resistance is futile and costly) from which represent alternative peaks (where differentiation is sustainable and valuable).
Run the diagnostic tests. Strong selection + tight constraints + homogeneous customers + stable environment = convergence is coming. Resist it at your peril. Weak selection + loose constraints + heterogeneous customers + changing environment = differentiation is possible. Converging erodes your advantage.
The most dangerous mistake? Fighting for the convergent peak when you could dominate an alternative peak. The second most dangerous? Occupying an alternative peak when the landscape is shifting toward convergence. The fitness landscape doesn't care about your strategy. It rewards alignment with reality.
Biology spent 600 million years discovering that camera eyes are inevitable for high-resolution imaging. Dolphins and ichthyosaurs independently discovered that streamlined bodies are inevitable for fast swimming. Aldi and Trader Joe's independently discovered that limited SKUs are inevitable for cost leadership in grocery retail.
In the next chapter, we explore co-evolution and arms races: when species don't evolve in isolation or toward fixed environments, but in response to each other, creating escalating cycles of adaptation and counter-adaptation - and how competitive dynamics between organizations create analogous races.
References
Foundational Theory
Wright, Sewall. "The Roles of Mutation, Inbreeding, Crossbreeding and Selection in Evolution." Proceedings of the Sixth International Congress of Genetics 1 (1932): 356–366. The foundational paper introducing the adaptive landscape metaphor - fitness as a topographic surface with peaks and valleys. Populations evolve by climbing toward fitness peaks; convergent evolution occurs when multiple populations independently climb toward the same peak. [HISTORICAL - widely cited]
Conway Morris, Simon. Life's Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. Argues that convergent evolution is pervasive and predictable - the same solutions arise repeatedly because the fitness landscape has a limited number of peaks. Controversial thesis that evolution is more deterministic than traditionally assumed. [BOOK - widely available]
Eye Evolution
Salvini-Plawen, Luitfried von, and Ernst Mayr. "On the Evolution of Photoreceptors and Eyes." Evolutionary Biology 10 (1977): 207–263. The landmark review estimating that eyes have evolved independently at least 40 times across animal phyla. Documented the diversity of eye types (compound, camera, pinhole) and their independent origins. [PAYWALL]
Ogura, Atsushi, et al. "Comparative Analysis of Gene Expression for Convergent Evolution of Camera Eye Between Octopus and Human." Genome Research 14, no. 8 (2004): 1555–1561. Molecular analysis of eye development in cephalopods and vertebrates. Found 1,019 of 1,052 genes expressed in octopus eyes were present in the common bilaterian ancestor, suggesting deep conservation despite independent evolution of camera-type eyes. [OPEN ACCESS]
Molecular Convergence
Liu, Yang, et al. "Convergent Sequence Evolution Between Echolocating Bats and Dolphins." Current Biology 20, no. 2 (2010): R53–R54. Discovered that the hearing gene Prestin shows convergent amino acid substitutions in echolocating bats and dolphins - the same molecular solutions to high-frequency hearing evolved independently. [PAYWALL]
Parker, Joe, et al. "Genome-Wide Signatures of Convergent Evolution in Echolocating Mammals." Nature 502, no. 7470 (2013): 228–231. Expanded molecular convergence analysis to entire genomes of echolocating bats and dolphins. Found 200+ genes with convergent changes, many related to hearing but others with unknown functions. [PAYWALL]
Simonson, Tatum S., et al. "Genetic Evidence for High-Altitude Adaptation in Tibet." Science 329, no. 5987 (2010): 72–75. Identified EPAS1 as the strongest signal of natural selection in Tibetan genomes, explaining their blunted hemoglobin response to high altitude. Tibetans avoid the excessive red blood cell production seen in Andean highlanders. [PAYWALL]
Beall, Cynthia M. "Two Routes to Functional Adaptation: Tibetan and Andean High-Altitude Natives." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104 (2007): 8655–8660. Comparative analysis of high-altitude adaptation in Tibetans (blunted hemoglobin response, increased blood flow) versus Andeans (elevated hemoglobin). Different molecular pathways to the same functional outcome - surviving hypoxia. [OPEN ACCESS]
C4 Photosynthesis
Sage, Rowan F. "The Evolution of C4 Photosynthesis." New Phytologist 161, no. 2 (2004): 341–370. Comprehensive review of C4 photosynthesis evolution. Documents 62+ independent origins across 19 angiosperm families, with 22-24 origins in grasses alone. Explains how C4 pathway concentrates CO2, reducing photorespiration in hot, dry environments. [OPEN ACCESS]
Christin, Pascal-Antoine, et al. "Anatomical Enablers and the Evolution of C4 Photosynthesis in Grasses." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110, no. 4 (2013): 1381–1386. Identified anatomical preadaptations (large bundle sheath cells, short interveinal distances) that made certain grass lineages 10-20x more likely to evolve C4 photosynthesis. Explains why convergence is concentrated in specific clades. [OPEN ACCESS]
Business Case Studies: Retail
Brandes, Dieter. Bare Essentials: The Aldi Way of Retailing. Frankfurt: Campus Verlag, 1998. Insider account of Aldi's business model by a former Aldi executive. Documents the extreme simplification (300-600 SKUs, 90% private label, no frills) that enabled 30% lower prices than competitors. [BOOK - limited availability]
Supermarket News. "Trader Joe's: The Best Chain in America?" Supermarket News, various years. Trade publication coverage documenting Trader Joe's metrics: ~4,000 SKUs (vs. 50,000 at traditional supermarkets), 80% private label, highest revenue per square foot in U.S. grocery retail. [TRADE PUBLICATION]
Business Case Studies: Healthcare and Technology
Teladoc Health. Annual Report, Form 10-K, Fiscal Year 2022. Purchase, NY: Teladoc Health, Inc., 2023. Documents Teladoc's telehealth platform: 54 million members, 20+ million visits annually, $2.4 billion revenue. Details B2B2C distribution model and expansion through acquisitions (Livongo, BetterHelp). [OPEN ACCESS - SEC EDGAR]
Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited. Annual Report 2022. Hong Kong: Ping An Good Doctor, 2023. Documents Ping An Good Doctor's metrics: 400+ million registered users, AI-assisted triage handling majority of consultations, integrated pharmacy fulfillment. [OPEN ACCESS - company website]
Shopify Inc. Annual Report, Form 10-K, Fiscal Year 2022. Ottawa: Shopify Inc., 2023. Documents Shopify's merchant infrastructure: 2+ million merchants, $196 billion GMV, integrated payments (Shopify Payments), fulfillment, and merchant financing (Shopify Capital). [OPEN ACCESS - SEC EDGAR]
Strategic Frameworks
Porter, Michael E. "What Is Strategy?" Harvard Business Review 74, no. 6 (1996): 61–78. Introduces concept of strategic convergence - when operational improvements diffuse industry-wide, eroding competitive advantage. Argues sustainable advantage requires being different, not just better. [PAYWALL]
Christensen, Clayton M. The Innovator's Dilemma. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1997. Documents convergent patterns in disruptive innovation across industries - low-end entry, gradual performance improvement, eventual mainstream displacement. The pattern repeats because the economic dynamics are universal. [BOOK - widely available]
Kim, W. Chan, and Renée Mauborgne. Blue Ocean Strategy. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2005. Framework distinguishing "red ocean" strategies (convergent competition for existing market space) from "blue ocean" strategies (divergent creation of new market space). Convergence on red ocean strategies is inevitable without deliberate differentiation. [BOOK - widely available]
Sources & Citations
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